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Super League
Referee: Lukas Fahndrich
Lugano
T T U U U
1–2
Full-time
Thun
S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Thun
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,8
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,65 xG 1,72
54% Possession 46%
9 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 9
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Jul -20 Lugano – Thun 1–1 9. Feb -20 Thun – Lugano 3–2 24. Nov -19 Thun – Lugano 0–3 28. Jul -19 Lugano – Thun 0–0

Match report

Lugano Thun
1–0 O. Doumbia ⚽
A. Grgic
16′
Ayman El Wafi 🟨
37′
Half-time 1–0
E. Alioski 🔁
↦ Y. Cimignani
60′
R. Steffen 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
60′
M. Belhadj 🔁
↦ O. Doumbia
60′
Zachary Brault Guillard 🟨
62′
63′
⚽ L. Bertone 1–1
66′
🔁 M. Kait
↦ F. Meichtry
66′
🔁 V. Matoshi
↦ N. Reichmuth
M. Zanotti 🔁
↦ Z. Brault-Guillard
69′
71′
🔁 M. Gutbub
↦ C. Ibayi
D. Dos Santos 🔁
↦ D. Kelvin
74′
79′
🔁 V. Janjicic
↦ J. Roth
79′
🔁 J. Bamert
↦ M. Heule
85′
⚽ L. Bertone 1–2
95′
🟨 Niklas Steffen
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Lugano

4-4-1-1
1 A. Saipi G
2 Z. Brault-Guillard D
4 D. Kelvin D
17 L. Mai D
22 A. El Wafi D
10 M. Bottani M
8 A. Grgic M
20 O. Doumbia M
21 Y. Cimignani M
25 U. Bislimi F
91 K. Behrens F
Bench (9)
6 A. Papadopoulos
7 E. Alioski
9 G. Koutsias
11 R. Steffen
15 F. Pseftis
27 D. Dos Santos
29 M. Belhadj
46 M. Zanotti
97 A. Duville-Parsemain

Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Thun

4-1-3-2
24 N. Steffen G
47 F. Fehr D
4 G. Montolio D
23 M. Burki D
27 M. Heule D
6 L. Bertone M
70 N. Reichmuth M
16 J. Roth M
77 F. Meichtry M
18 C. Ibayi F
74 E. Rastoder F
Bench (9)
1 N. Ziswiler
8 V. Janjicic
10 M. Tomas
11 L. Stewart
14 M. Kait
19 J. Bamert
33 M. Gutbub
37 L. Dahler
78 V. Matoshi

Coach: Mauro Lustrinelli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Lukas Fahndrich · 11 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.