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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Watford

T T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Swansea

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

51%

66%

Both score Ø 62%

54%

69%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,94 xG 1,81

37% Possession 63%

19 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 12. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	36	26	3	7	+41	+28.8	81
2	Ipswich	36	23	9	4	+26	+22.3	78
3	Leeds	34	21	7	6	+36	+29.9	70
4	Southampton	33	19	7	7	+21	+23.7	64
5	West Brom	33	17	8	8	+21	+8.2	59
6	Hull	36	16	9	11	+7	+7.5	57
7	Norwich	33	16	7	10	+11	-1.5	55
8	Coventry	36	14	12	10	+15	+11.5	54
9	Preston	35	15	8	12	-5	-11.9	53
10	Sunderland	36	14	5	17	+5	+8.7	47
11	Cardiff	35	14	5	16	-8	-19.0	47
12	Watford	35	11	11	13	+2	+1.7	44
13	Bristol City	36	12	8	16	-2	-2.0	44
14	Middlesbrough	34	13	5	16	-4	+11.1	44
15	Swansea	35	11	9	15	-11	-10.6	42
16	Plymouth	36	10	10	16	-7	-17.8	40
17	Blackburn	36	11	7	18	-13	-5.0	40
18	Millwall	36	10	10	16	-13	-11.3	40
19	Birmingham	35	10	9	16	-14	-8.8	39
20	QPR	35	10	8	17	-12	-9.5	38
21	Huddersfield	35	8	14	13	-15	-12.0	38
22	Stoke	36	10	8	18	-16	-4.0	38
23	Sheffield Weds	36	11	5	20	-23	-5.0	38
24	Rotherham	36	3	10	23	-42	-35.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	13	4	0	+26	+20.8	43
2	Ipswich	18	13	4	1	+18	+19.4	43
3	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
4	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
5	Norwich	17	12	2	3	+15	+7.5	38
6	Southampton	16	10	2	4	+18	+15.7	32
7	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
8	Preston	18	9	4	5	-2	-5.3	31
9	Sunderland	18	10	0	8	+7	+7.7	30
10	Plymouth	18	8	4	6	+6	-6.4	28
11	Hull	18	7	6	5	+7	+8.3	27
12	Birmingham	17	7	6	4	+4	-0.4	27
13	Sheffield Weds	18	7	4	7	-1	+2.6	25
14	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+1	+1.3	24
15	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	-1	-8.6	24
16	Huddersfield	18	5	7	6	-2	-3.2	22
17	Blackburn	18	6	4	8	-4	+3.2	22
18	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-7	+0.4	22
19	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	-3	+7.9	21
20	Watford	17	5	5	7	+4	+8.7	20
21	Swansea	18	5	5	8	-6	-1.8	20
22	Millwall	18	5	4	9	-12	-3.8	19
23	QPR	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
24	Rotherham	18	3	6	9	-7	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	18	13	2	3	+19	+13.4	41
2	Ipswich	18	10	5	3	+8	+2.9	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
5	Leeds	17	8	3	6	+10	+9.1	27
6	Watford	18	6	6	6	-2	-7.0	24
7	Middlesbrough	17	7	2	8	-1	+3.2	23
8	Cardiff	18	7	2	9	-7	-10.4	23
9	Coventry	18	6	4	8	+3	+4.1	22
10	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
11	Swansea	17	6	4	7	-5	-8.8	22
12	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-1	-7.5	21
13	QPR	18	6	3	9	-6	-7.4	21
14	West Brom	16	5	5	6	+4	-1.1	20
15	Bristol City	18	5	5	8	-3	-3.2	20
16	Blackburn	18	5	3	10	-9	-8.1	18
17	Sunderland	18	4	5	9	-2	+1.0	17
18	Norwich	16	4	5	7	-4	-9.0	17
19	Stoke	18	4	4	10	-9	-4.3	16
20	Huddersfield	17	3	7	7	-13	-8.9	16
21	Sheffield Weds	18	4	1	13	-22	-7.5	13
22	Plymouth	18	2	6	10	-13	-11.4	12
23	Birmingham	18	3	3	12	-18	-8.4	12
24	Rotherham	18	0	4	14	-35	-25.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.