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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Swansea

U S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Watford

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

1,3

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 49%

50%

48%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

15%

19%

Both score Ø 34%

30%

38%

Average goals

1,7

1,9

Scored

1,1

Conceded

0,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 8

4 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 6. · Watford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	13	5	4	+10	44
2	Bournemouth	20	10	8	2	+19	38
3	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
4	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	37
5	Reading	22	11	4	7	+5	37
6	Swansea	20	10	6	4	+11	36
7	Stoke	22	9	8	5	+5	35
8	Barnsley	21	10	4	7	+1	34
9	Middlesbrough	21	9	6	6	+8	33
10	Bristol City	22	10	3	9	-1	33
11	Preston	22	10	2	10	+0	32
12	Huddersfield	22	9	4	9	-3	31
13	Luton	22	8	6	8	-4	30
14	Blackburn	22	8	5	9	+9	29
15	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+4	29
16	Millwall	20	5	10	5	-1	25
17	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
18	Coventry	22	5	8	9	-10	23
19	Birmingham	22	5	8	9	-10	23
20	QPR	22	4	9	9	-10	21
21	Derby	22	4	7	11	-10	19
22	Nott'm Forest	22	4	7	11	-11	19
23	Rotherham	20	4	4	12	-10	16
24	Wycombe	22	3	6	13	-17	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	Bournemouth	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Huddersfield	11	7	1	3	+7	22
5	Norwich	11	6	4	1	+6	22
6	Reading	11	7	0	4	+4	21
7	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
8	Swansea	10	5	4	1	+7	19
9	Luton	11	5	4	2	+4	19
10	Blackburn	11	5	3	3	+6	18
11	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+1	18
12	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+0	17
14	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
15	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
16	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	+4	14
17	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	11	4	1	6	-2	13
20	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	+0	11
21	Millwall	10	1	7	2	-2	10
22	Wycombe	11	2	4	5	-4	10
23	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-11	8
24	Derby	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+4	22
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Preston	11	6	1	4	+2	19
4	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Stoke	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	Reading	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Bristol City	11	5	1	5	-1	16
8	Bournemouth	10	3	6	1	+7	15
9	Birmingham	11	3	6	2	+1	15
10	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+1	15
11	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Barnsley	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
14	Blackburn	11	3	2	6	+3	11
15	Watford	10	2	5	3	-2	11
16	Luton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Middlesbrough	11	2	4	5	-3	10
18	Huddersfield	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	QPR	11	1	5	5	-8	8
20	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
21	Coventry	11	1	3	7	-9	6
22	Nott'm Forest	11	1	3	7	-10	6
23	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.