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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Swansea

S S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Watford

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

75%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,74 xG 0,80

59% Possession 41%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 17. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	12	11	0	1	+19	+11.7	33
2	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+12	+7.5	28
3	Preston	12	6	3	3	-2	-3.2	21
4	Southampton	12	6	2	4	-3	+2.2	20
5	Sunderland	12	6	1	5	+7	+4.5	19
6	Leeds	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.6	19
7	Birmingham	12	5	3	4	+3	+2.7	18
8	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+2	-0.1	18
9	West Brom	12	4	5	3	+4	-1.6	17
10	Norwich	11	5	2	4	+2	-0.4	17
11	Hull	12	4	5	3	+1	-1.0	17
12	Cardiff	12	5	2	5	+1	-0.2	17
13	Middlesbrough	12	5	2	5	+0	+7.9	17
14	Millwall	12	4	4	4	-2	-5.0	16
15	Blackburn	12	5	1	6	-3	+0.4	16
16	Coventry	12	3	6	3	+3	+4.5	15
17	Swansea	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.2	15
18	Huddersfield	12	3	5	4	-6	-4.6	14
19	Watford	12	3	4	5	-1	+1.3	13
20	Stoke	12	4	1	7	-5	-1.0	13
21	Plymouth	12	3	3	6	-1	-4.5	12
22	QPR	12	2	2	8	-13	-7.9	8
23	Rotherham	11	1	3	7	-12	-13.1	6
24	Sheffield Weds	12	0	3	9	-14	-7.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	6	5	0	1	+8	+7.0	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+7	+4.8	15
3	Birmingham	6	4	2	0	+7	+3.3	14
4	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.8	13
5	Preston	6	4	1	1	+0	-1.9	13
6	Leeds	6	3	3	0	+5	+7.6	12
7	Norwich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.5	12
8	Watford	7	3	2	2	+5	+4.0	11
9	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
10	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.0	10
11	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+1	+5.2	10
12	Plymouth	6	3	0	3	+4	-0.9	9
13	Sunderland	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.7	9
14	Stoke	6	3	0	3	+0	-0.3	9
15	Blackburn	6	3	0	3	-3	+0.5	9
16	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.1	8
17	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.9	8
18	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.8	8
19	Huddersfield	6	2	2	2	-2	-2.7	8
20	Hull	6	1	4	1	+1	+0.6	7
21	Millwall	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.4	7
22	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.4	5
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	2	4	-6	-2.3	2
24	QPR	5	0	1	4	-9	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	6	6	0	0	+12	+6.9	18
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Southampton	6	4	0	2	-2	-0.6	12
4	Sunderland	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.7	10
5	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
6	Hull	6	3	1	2	+0	-1.6	10
7	Millwall	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.7	9
8	Preston	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.3	8
9	Swansea	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
10	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
11	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.1	7
12	Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	-1	+2.8	7
13	QPR	7	2	1	4	-4	-4.7	7
14	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	-1.9	6
15	Huddersfield	6	1	3	2	-4	-1.9	6
16	Coventry	6	1	2	3	-1	+0.5	5
17	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.0	5
18	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.0	4
19	Birmingham	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
20	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
21	Plymouth	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.6	3
22	Watford	5	0	2	3	-6	-2.7	2
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.2	1
24	Rotherham	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.