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Ekstraklasa

Referee: Piotr Lasyk

Zaglebie

T U S U S

4–0

Full-time

Arka Gdynia

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zaglebie Arka Gdynia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

4,0

1,7

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 24%

25%

22%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

75%

22%

Both score Ø 61%

88%

33%

Average goals

3,6

1,7

Scored

2,0

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Zaglebie 11. · Arka Gdynia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.2	19
2	Cracovia	9	5	3	1	+7	+2.5	18
3	Korona Kielce	10	5	3	2	+7	-2.1	18
4	Jagiellonia	9	5	3	1	+4	-2.5	18
5	Wisla Plock	9	5	2	2	+5	+6.2	17
6	Legia	9	4	3	2	+6	+3.6	15
7	Lech Poznan	9	4	3	2	+1	+6.0	15
8	Radomiak Radom	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.1	11
9	Rakow	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.3	11
10	Lechia Gdansk	10	3	2	5	-7	-2.9	11
11	Zaglebie	8	2	4	2	+3	-1.8	10
12	Widzew Lodz	10	3	1	6	+0	+2.2	10
13	Motor Lublin	8	2	4	2	-3	-1.0	10
14	Pogon Szczecin	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.0	10
15	Nieciecza	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.2	9
16	Arka Gdynia	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
17	GKS Katowice	10	2	2	6	-10	-6.8	8
18	Piast Gliwice	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	6	4	1	1	+5	+5.2	13
2	Korona Kielce	5	4	0	1	+7	+0.0	12
3	Legia	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.3	11
4	Cracovia	5	3	2	0	+4	+2.6	11
5	Radomiak Radom	5	3	1	1	+6	+1.2	10
6	Widzew Lodz	6	3	1	2	+4	+1.1	10
7	Gornik Zabrze	5	3	0	2	+3	+1.4	9
8	Jagiellonia	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.5	9
9	Arka Gdynia	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.8	8
10	Lech Poznan	6	2	2	2	-2	+4.2	8
11	Lechia Gdansk	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.3	7
12	GKS Katowice	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
13	Zaglebie	4	1	3	0	+4	+1.2	6
14	Pogon Szczecin	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.3	6
15	Piast Gliwice	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.1	5
16	Motor Lublin	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.9	5
17	Rakow	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.1	2
18	Nieciecza	4	0	1	3	-5	+0.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.7	10
2	Jagiellonia	5	2	3	0	+2	–	9
3	Rakow	5	3	0	2	-1	+0.8	9
4	Nieciecza	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.5	8
5	Cracovia	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
6	Lech Poznan	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
7	Korona Kielce	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.2	6
8	Motor Lublin	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.9	5
9	Legia	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.2	4
10	Wisla Plock	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
11	Zaglebie	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.0	4
12	Pogon Szczecin	6	1	1	4	-6	+1.6	4
13	Lechia Gdansk	6	1	1	4	-9	-4.2	4
14	Piast Gliwice	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.8	2
15	Radomiak Radom	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.3	1
16	Arka Gdynia	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.0	1
17	GKS Katowice	5	0	1	4	-10	-3.9	1
18	Widzew Lodz	4	0	0	4	-4	+1.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.