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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Preston

T U U U T

3–0

Full-time

Watford

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

14%

57%

Points per game

0,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

43%

71%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

0,6

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,04 xG 0,93

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 22. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.3	18
2	Burnley	8	5	2	1	+10	+1.8	17
3	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+6	+5.3	16
4	Leeds	8	4	3	1	+8	+8.4	15
5	Sheffield United	7	4	3	0	+6	+3.4	15
6	Blackburn	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.9	15
7	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+4	+8.0	14
8	Watford	7	4	1	2	+2	-1.2	13
9	Hull	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.2	12
10	Norwich	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.9	12
11	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+3	-4.1	11
12	Oxford	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.2	11
13	Derby	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.8	9
14	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	-4	+0.7	9
15	Millwall	8	2	2	4	+1	+6.5	8
16	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-2	+3.2	8
17	Plymouth	8	2	2	4	-4	-9.4	8
18	Luton	8	2	2	4	-5	+2.0	8
19	QPR	8	1	4	3	-5	-1.7	7
20	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.8	7
21	Stoke	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.1	6
22	Preston	7	1	2	4	-8	-7.5	5
23	Portsmouth	7	0	4	3	-6	-7.2	4
24	Cardiff	8	1	1	6	-14	-6.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
2	Sunderland	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
3	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+7	+1.2	10
4	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.2	10
5	Oxford	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.2	10
6	Derby	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.6	9
7	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	+1.2	8
8	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
9	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+4	+5.2	7
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
11	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.1	7
12	Plymouth	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.6	7
13	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
14	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.5	7
15	Norwich	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.6	6
16	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
17	Coventry	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.1	6
18	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
19	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.2	4
20	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.3	4
21	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
22	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
23	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	+1.1	2
24	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.8	9
2	Sheffield United	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.1	8
3	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.2	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
6	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
7	Middlesbrough	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.8	6
8	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
9	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.8	5
10	Luton	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.7	4
11	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	-5.2	3
12	Watford	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.4	3
13	Blackburn	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.9	3
14	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.0	3
15	Portsmouth	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.0	2
16	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.9	2
17	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.9	2
18	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
19	Oxford	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.0	1
20	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.9	1
21	Preston	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.3	1
22	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.4	1
23	Derby	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.5	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.