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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Norwich

U U T S T

4–1

Full-time

Watford

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,72 xG 1,67

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 16. · Watford 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	5	4	1	0	+7	+3.9	13
2	Sunderland	5	4	0	1	+8	+4.2	12
3	Blackburn	5	3	2	0	+6	-0.6	11
4	Sheffield United	5	3	2	0	+5	+2.3	11
5	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.4	10
6	Watford	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.0	10
7	Oxford	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.3	9
8	Derby	5	3	0	2	+2	-0.2	9
9	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.8	8
10	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+2	+6.2	8
11	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.4	7
12	QPR	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.3	6
13	Hull	6	1	3	2	-2	+0.5	6
14	Stoke	6	2	0	4	-5	-1.4	6
15	Coventry	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.9	5
16	Norwich	5	1	2	2	-2	+1.0	5
17	Plymouth	5	1	2	2	-4	-7.3	5
18	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-5	-0.7	5
19	Millwall	5	1	1	3	+0	+3.3	4
20	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	+1.5	4
21	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.8	4
22	Preston	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
23	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-7.5	3
24	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-10	-3.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.1	9
2	Oxford	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
3	Derby	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.2	9
4	Watford	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.0	7
6	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	+5.4	5
8	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+5	+0.7	4
9	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
10	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
11	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
12	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.5	4
13	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
14	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
15	Millwall	3	1	0	2	+1	+3.9	3
16	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
17	Preston	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
18	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
19	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
20	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.9	2
21	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
22	Portsmouth	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.2	1
23	Luton	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.5	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.0	9
2	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
3	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.3	6
4	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.1	6
5	QPR	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.1	5
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
7	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
8	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
9	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
10	Watford	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.3	3
11	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.3	3
12	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
13	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-4.3	2
14	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
15	Coventry	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.3	2
16	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
17	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
18	Preston	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.6	1
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.0	1
20	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.3	1
21	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
22	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.3	0
23	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.