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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Lille
T T T U S
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/1 matches
Win Ø 70%
40%
100%
Points per game
1,4
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
40%
100%
Both score Ø 80%
60%
100%
Average goals
2,4
4,0
Scored
1,2
3,0
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,29 xG 2,09
42% Possession 58%
7 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lille Real Madrid
Half-time 0–0
Edon Zhegrova ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
46′
46′
🟨 Endrick
46′
🔁 Fran García
↦ F. Mendy
1–0 J. David ⚽
47′
57′
🔁 K. Mbappé
↦ Éder Militão
57′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ Endrick
59′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
67′
🔁 A. Güler
↦ E. Camavinga
O. Sahraoui 🔁
↦ R. Cabella
72′
78′
🟨 Jude Bellingham
79′
🟨 Antonio Rüdiger
81′
🟨 Luka Modrić
T. Meunier 🔁
↦ M. Bakker
88′
Jonathan David 🟨
93′
Bafodé Diakité 🟨
96′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
22 Tiago Santos D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
32 A. Bouaddi M
21 B. André M
23 E. Zhegrova M
10 R. Cabella M
20 M. Bakker M
9 J. David F
Bench (11)
11 O. Sahraoui
12 T. Meunier
2 A. Mandi
47 Y. Lachaab
35 I. Cossier
1 V. Mannone
27 M. Bayo
16 M. Caillard
19 M. Fernandez-Pardo
39 L. Baret
36 O. Touré

Coach: B. Génésio

Real Madrid

4-4-2
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
6 E. Camavinga M
5 J. Bellingham M
16 Endrick F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
20 Fran García
9 K. Mbappé
10 L. Modrić
15 A. Güler
31 Jacobo Ramón
34 Sergio Mestre
11 Rodrygo
17 Lucas Vázquez
18 Jesús Vallejo
26 Fran González

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.