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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Plymouth

S T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Portsmouth

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 16%

23%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

54%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

46%

69%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,79 xG 0,80

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 22. · Portsmouth 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	13	9	2	2	+14	+2.8	29
2	Sheffield United	13	8	3	2	+10	+5.1	27
3	Leeds	13	7	5	1	+14	+13.7	26
4	Burnley	13	6	5	2	+11	+1.8	23
5	Watford	13	7	1	5	+1	-2.4	22
6	West Brom	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.8	21
7	Middlesbrough	14	6	3	5	+2	+13.3	21
8	Millwall	13	5	4	4	+4	+7.3	19
9	Blackburn	13	5	4	4	+2	-2.2	19
10	Bristol City	13	4	7	2	+0	+0.4	19
11	Norwich	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.8	18
12	Sheffield Weds	14	5	3	6	-7	-2.9	18
13	Oxford	14	4	5	5	+0	-5.6	17
14	Swansea	13	4	4	5	+1	+0.4	16
15	Coventry	13	4	3	6	+0	+4.5	15
16	Derby	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
17	Hull	14	3	6	5	-3	-1.9	15
18	Stoke	13	4	3	6	-3	-4.4	15
19	Cardiff	13	4	3	6	-6	-4.2	15
20	Preston	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.4	14
21	Luton	13	3	3	7	-6	+1.5	12
22	Plymouth	13	3	3	7	-12	-13.9	12
23	QPR	14	1	7	6	-11	-4.8	10
24	Portsmouth	13	1	6	6	-13	-9.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	7	5	1	1	+10	+8.9	16
2	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
3	Blackburn	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.1	16
4	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
5	Sheffield United	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.8	16
6	Oxford	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.1	15
7	Derby	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.7	13
8	Millwall	7	4	1	2	+5	+8.1	13
9	Burnley	6	3	3	0	+7	+2.0	12
10	Cardiff	7	4	0	3	+3	-1.6	12
11	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
12	Plymouth	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.6	11
13	Preston	7	3	2	2	+1	+1.6	11
14	Sheffield Weds	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.8	11
15	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	-1	+7.5	11
16	Norwich	6	2	4	0	+7	+2.7	10
17	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
18	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+3	+3.9	9
19	Coventry	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.0	9
20	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+4.8	9
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
22	Hull	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
23	QPR	8	0	4	4	-8	-0.5	4
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
2	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.0	12
3	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+4	-0.2	11
4	Sheffield United	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.8	11
5	Leeds	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.8	10
6	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+3	+5.8	10
7	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	-2	+0.8	9
8	Hull	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.2	8
9	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.9	8
10	Swansea	7	2	1	4	-2	-3.5	7
11	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
12	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.8	6
13	Coventry	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.4	6
14	QPR	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.4	6
15	Watford	7	2	0	5	-6	-4.4	6
16	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-7	-6.6	6
17	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
18	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-7	-5.1	4
19	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
20	Preston	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.0	3
21	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-9	-2.7	3
22	Oxford	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.5	2
23	Derby	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.6	2
24	Plymouth	7	0	1	6	-15	-13.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.