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Champions League
Referee: E Lambrechts
Dortmund
S T T T S
1–0
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
6,0
2,0
Scored
4,0
0,3
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,68 xG 0,57
66% Possession 34%
21 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Dortmund Sturm Graz
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 L. Zvonarek
↦ S. Jatta
60′
🔁 N. Geyrhofer
↦ M. Johnston
D. Malen 🔁
↦ M. Sabitzer
67′
Donyell Malen 🟨
74′
75′
🔁 E. Yardımcı
↦ M. Biereth
C. Campbell 🔁
↦ J. Gittens
77′
1–0 D. Malen
S. Guirassy
85′
A. Azhil 🔁
↦ M. Beier
89′
90′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ O. Kiteishvili
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-3-3
33 A. Meyer G
13 P. Groß D
23 E. Can D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaini D
20 M. Sabitzer M
8 F. Nmecha M
10 J. Brandt M
14 M. Beier F
9 S. Guirassy F
43 J. Gittens F
Bench (8)
21 D. Malen
37 C. Campbell
46 A. Azhil
45 T. Meiser
42 A. Kabar
35 M. Lotka
39 F. Mané
31 S. Ostrzinski

Coach: N. Şahin

Sturm Graz

4-2-2-2
1 K. Scherpen G
2 M. Johnston D
47 E. Aiwu D
24 D. Lavalée D
22 J. Gazibegović D
21 T. Chukwuani M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
8 M. Yalcouyé M
15 W. Bøving M
18 M. Biereth F
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (12)
14 L. Zvonarek
35 N. Geyrhofer
9 E. Yardımcı
19 T. Horvat
53 D. Khudyakov
17 E. Karić
25 S. Hierländer
38 L. Grgić
43 J. Hödl
23 A. Malić
32 K. Schopp
40 M. Bignetti

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

E Lambrechts · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.