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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Watford

S S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Bristol City

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

69%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

53%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,30 xG 0,52

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 7. · Bristol City 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	9	5	2	+16	+17.1	32
2	Sunderland	15	9	4	2	+14	+1.6	31
3	Sheffield United	15	9	4	2	+11	+4.2	31
4	Burnley	16	8	6	2	+13	+3.9	30
5	Middlesbrough	16	8	3	5	+10	+16.6	27
6	West Brom	16	6	8	2	+7	+5.6	26
7	Watford	16	8	2	6	+1	-2.2	26
8	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+5	+8.5	24
9	Blackburn	15	6	4	5	+2	-1.0	22
10	Bristol City	15	5	7	3	+1	+0.3	22
11	Derby	16	5	5	6	+0	-3.3	20
12	Stoke	16	5	5	6	-1	-7.1	20
13	Norwich	16	4	7	5	+1	+1.3	19
14	Swansea	16	5	4	7	+0	-0.3	19
15	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-8	-1.5	19
16	Luton	16	5	3	8	-8	+0.2	18
17	Oxford	16	4	5	7	-5	-7.9	17
18	Plymouth	16	4	5	7	-11	-16.7	17
19	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-1	+6.0	16
20	Preston	16	3	7	6	-8	-3.6	16
21	Cardiff	16	4	4	8	-9	-6.8	16
22	Hull	16	3	6	7	-5	-1.2	15
23	Portsmouth	15	2	6	7	-12	-7.9	12
24	QPR	16	1	8	7	-13	-5.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	8	6	1	1	+12	+10.8	19
2	Watford	7	6	1	0	+8	+2.1	19
3	Sheffield United	7	6	1	0	+8	+6.0	19
4	Millwall	9	5	2	2	+6	+8.1	17
5	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
6	Blackburn	8	5	1	2	+5	+1.6	16
7	Burnley	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.2	15
8	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
9	Oxford	9	4	3	2	+1	-4.4	15
10	Derby	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.6	14
11	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+3	+8.5	14
12	Luton	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.2	14
13	Preston	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.2	13
14	Stoke	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.4	12
15	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.5	12
16	Cardiff	8	4	0	4	+1	-2.2	12
17	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.3	12
18	West Brom	8	2	5	1	+1	+4.6	11
19	Norwich	7	2	4	1	+5	+2.1	10
20	Coventry	8	3	1	4	+1	+6.4	10
21	Bristol City	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.1	10
22	Hull	8	1	4	3	-1	+1.3	7
23	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
24	QPR	9	0	5	4	-8	+0.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	8	4	3	1	+6	+1.0	15
2	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.7	15
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Middlesbrough	8	4	1	3	+7	+8.1	13
5	Leeds	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.4	13
6	Sheffield United	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.8	12
7	Bristol City	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.4	12
8	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.9	9
9	Hull	8	2	2	4	-4	-2.5	8
10	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.7	8
11	Millwall	7	1	4	2	-1	+0.4	7
12	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.7	7
13	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
14	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-7	-4.9	7
15	Coventry	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.4	6
16	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.6	6
17	QPR	7	1	3	3	-5	-6.2	6
18	Derby	9	1	3	5	-6	-4.9	6
19	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-6.6	6
20	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-3.0	4
21	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-10	-4.6	4
22	Preston	7	0	3	4	-9	-5.7	3
23	Oxford	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.5	2
24	Plymouth	8	0	2	6	-15	-14.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.