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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Luton

T T U T T

1–1

Full-time

Plymouth

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

19%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,74 xG 0,26

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 3

2 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 24. · Plymouth 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	33	21	9	3	+48	+42.5	72
2	Sheffield United	31	20	6	5	+22	+12.4	66
3	Burnley	33	17	14	2	+30	+9.5	65
4	Sunderland	31	17	10	4	+21	+10.6	61
5	Blackburn	33	15	6	12	+8	+1.2	51
6	West Brom	33	11	15	7	+11	+6.4	48
7	Bristol City	32	11	13	8	+5	+4.5	46
8	Coventry	32	13	7	12	+3	+16.4	46
9	Sheffield Weds	33	12	9	12	-4	-2.5	45
10	Watford	33	13	6	14	-5	-10.3	45
11	Middlesbrough	32	12	8	12	+7	+12.7	44
12	Norwich	33	11	11	11	+6	+8.2	44
13	QPR	33	11	11	11	-2	-4.7	44
14	Millwall	33	10	12	11	-1	+3.1	42
15	Preston	33	9	15	9	-4	-0.2	42
16	Oxford	33	9	11	13	-13	-15.4	38
17	Swansea	33	10	7	16	-12	-3.0	37
18	Portsmouth	33	9	9	15	-14	-11.4	36
19	Stoke	32	8	11	13	-9	-17.0	35
20	Cardiff	32	7	11	14	-19	-14.4	32
21	Hull	32	7	9	16	-11	-6.1	30
22	Derby	33	7	8	18	-13	-6.0	29
23	Plymouth	32	6	10	16	-32	-29.1	28
24	Luton	32	7	6	19	-22	-7.2	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	14	2	1	+36	+27.5	44
2	Sunderland	15	10	5	0	+16	+9.1	35
3	Sheffield United	15	11	2	2	+13	+11.6	35
4	Burnley	16	8	8	0	+14	+5.3	32
5	Blackburn	17	10	2	5	+10	+5.3	32
6	Bristol City	15	8	5	2	+12	+7.8	29
7	Watford	16	9	2	5	+3	-3.3	29
8	Oxford	17	8	5	4	+2	-2.8	29
9	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+10	+6.1	28
10	Norwich	16	7	6	3	+16	+10.8	27
11	Coventry	16	8	3	5	+7	+10.5	27
12	Preston	17	6	9	2	+5	+4.0	27
13	Portsmouth	16	7	5	4	+9	+2.8	26
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	5	5	+5	+6.2	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	+4	+3.5	26
16	Millwall	17	7	4	6	+4	+6.8	25
17	Plymouth	16	6	6	4	+2	-4.9	24
18	Stoke	16	5	7	4	+3	-4.5	22
19	Sheffield Weds	17	5	7	5	+1	+3.5	22
20	Luton	16	6	4	6	+0	+3.6	22
21	Derby	16	6	3	7	+4	+3.0	21
22	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	-1	-2.0	21
23	Swansea	16	5	5	6	+2	+5.9	20
24	Hull	17	2	7	8	-6	+1.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+16	+4.2	33
2	Sheffield United	16	9	4	3	+9	+0.7	31
3	Leeds	16	7	7	2	+12	+14.9	28
4	Sunderland	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.5	26
5	Sheffield Weds	16	7	2	7	-5	-6.1	23
6	West Brom	17	4	8	5	+1	+0.3	20
7	Blackburn	16	5	4	7	-2	-4.1	19
8	Coventry	16	5	4	7	-4	+5.9	19
9	Middlesbrough	15	5	3	7	+2	+6.5	18
10	QPR	16	4	6	6	-6	-8.2	18
11	Hull	15	5	2	8	-5	-7.1	17
12	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-5	-3.8	17
13	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	-7	-3.3	17
14	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-10	-2.6	17
15	Swansea	17	5	2	10	-14	-8.9	17
16	Watford	17	4	4	9	-8	-7.0	16
17	Preston	16	3	6	7	-9	-4.2	15
18	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-12	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	16	1	8	7	-18	-12.4	11
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	-23	-14.2	10
21	Oxford	16	1	6	9	-15	-12.7	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	-17	-8.9	8
23	Luton	16	1	2	13	-22	-10.8	5
24	Plymouth	16	0	4	12	-34	-24.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.