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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Plymouth

T T U S S

5–1

Full-time

Millwall

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

57%

27%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

3,1

1,9

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,56 xG 0,84

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 24. · Millwall 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	32	20	9	3	+47	+41.0	69
2	Burnley	31	16	13	2	+28	+7.7	61
3	Sheffield United	29	18	6	5	+19	+10.7	60
4	Sunderland	29	16	10	3	+20	+11.1	58
5	West Brom	31	11	14	6	+13	+6.8	47
6	Blackburn	31	13	6	12	+4	-0.2	45
7	Middlesbrough	30	12	8	10	+10	+14.5	44
8	Norwich	32	11	10	11	+6	+7.4	43
9	Coventry	31	12	7	12	+2	+16.5	43
10	Bristol City	30	10	12	8	+3	+4.0	42
11	Sheffield Weds	31	11	9	11	-4	-3.3	42
12	Watford	32	12	6	14	-6	-11.0	42
13	QPR	32	10	11	11	-6	-5.1	41
14	Millwall	30	10	10	10	+3	+5.6	40
15	Preston	31	9	13	9	-4	-0.5	40
16	Oxford	32	9	11	12	-11	-14.9	38
17	Swansea	31	10	7	14	-9	-2.2	37
18	Portsmouth	32	8	9	15	-16	-12.0	33
19	Stoke	30	7	11	12	-9	-15.9	32
20	Cardiff	31	7	10	14	-19	-15.0	31
21	Derby	32	7	8	17	-9	-5.7	29
22	Hull	30	7	8	15	-9	-4.2	29
23	Luton	30	7	6	17	-19	-5.8	27
24	Plymouth	30	5	10	15	-34	-29.5	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	13	2	1	+35	+26.1	41
2	Sunderland	14	9	5	0	+14	+8.1	32
3	Sheffield United	14	10	2	2	+11	+10.5	32
4	Burnley	15	7	8	0	+12	+4.2	29
5	Blackburn	16	9	2	5	+8	+4.0	29
6	Oxford	16	8	5	3	+4	-2.2	29
7	Watford	16	9	2	5	+3	-3.3	29
8	West Brom	15	7	7	1	+12	+6.2	28
9	Norwich	16	7	6	3	+16	+10.8	27
10	Coventry	16	8	3	5	+7	+10.5	27
11	Bristol City	14	7	5	2	+10	+6.7	26
12	Portsmouth	16	7	5	4	+9	+2.8	26
13	Middlesbrough	16	7	5	4	+6	+6.9	26
14	Preston	15	6	7	2	+5	+3.7	25
15	Millwall	16	7	3	6	+4	+6.6	24
16	QPR	16	6	5	5	+0	+3.1	23
17	Sheffield Weds	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.5	22
18	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
19	Derby	16	6	3	7	+4	+3.0	21
20	Plymouth	15	5	6	4	-2	-6.7	21
21	Swansea	15	5	5	5	+3	+6.7	20
22	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-1	-2.6	20
23	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
24	Hull	16	2	6	8	-6	+1.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	16	9	5	2	+16	+3.5	32
2	Leeds	16	7	7	2	+12	+14.9	28
3	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+8	+0.2	28
4	Sunderland	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.9	26
5	Sheffield Weds	15	6	2	7	-6	-6.8	20
6	West Brom	16	4	7	5	+1	+0.6	19
7	Middlesbrough	14	5	3	6	+4	+7.7	18
8	QPR	16	4	6	6	-6	-8.2	18
9	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
10	Swansea	16	5	2	9	-12	-8.9	17
11	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-1	-0.9	16
12	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-4	-4.2	16
13	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-5	+5.9	16
14	Bristol City	16	3	7	6	-7	-2.8	16
15	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-10	-3.4	16
16	Preston	16	3	6	7	-9	-4.2	15
17	Watford	16	3	4	9	-9	-7.7	13
18	Stoke	15	3	4	8	-10	-11.4	13
19	Cardiff	16	1	8	7	-18	-12.4	11
20	Oxford	16	1	6	9	-15	-12.7	9
21	Derby	16	1	5	10	-13	-8.6	8
22	Portsmouth	16	1	4	11	-25	-14.8	7
23	Luton	15	1	2	12	-20	-9.9	5
24	Plymouth	15	0	4	11	-32	-22.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.