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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Chelsea

T S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,5

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

80%

10%

Points per game

2,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,6

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%

25 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

14 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	10	8	1	1	+23	25
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+16	23
3	Liverpool	10	6	4	0	+21	22
4	West Ham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+2	17
6	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	-1	17
7	Wolves	10	5	1	4	+1	16
8	Brighton	10	4	4	2	+0	16
9	Tottenham	10	5	0	5	-7	15
10	Everton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Southampton	11	3	5	3	-2	14
13	Brentford	10	3	3	4	+0	12
14	Crystal Palace	10	2	6	2	-1	12
15	Aston Villa	11	3	1	7	-6	10
16	Watford	10	3	1	6	-6	10
17	Leeds	10	2	4	4	-7	10
18	Burnley	10	1	4	5	-6	7
19	Newcastle	10	0	4	6	-12	4
20	Norwich	10	0	2	8	-22	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+14	12
2	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+5	9
5	Everton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
8	Crystal Palace	5	1	4	0	+3	7
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Wolves	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Burnley	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
18	Watford	5	1	1	3	-7	4
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+16	13
2	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Leicester	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Tottenham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-7	3
18	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.