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Championship

Referee: Anthony Backhouse

Wrexham

U T S U T

3–2

Full-time

Coventry

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wrexham Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

0,8

3,2

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 46%

25%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

42%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,3

2,8

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+2,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,41 xG 1,56

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wrexham 16. · Coventry 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	8	4	0	+25	+15.2	28
2	Middlesbrough	11	7	3	1	+8	+3.2	24
3	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+1.4	23
4	Bristol City	12	6	4	2	+9	+3.1	22
5	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.7	21
6	Charlton	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.5	19
7	Preston	12	5	4	3	+3	-1.1	19
8	Hull	12	5	4	3	+0	-8.0	19
9	QPR	12	5	3	4	-2	-0.7	18
10	Leicester	12	4	5	3	+3	-2.4	17
11	West Brom	12	5	2	5	-2	-1.5	17
12	Ipswich	11	4	4	3	+4	+9.6	16
13	Swansea	12	4	4	4	+0	-4.9	16
14	Watford	12	4	3	5	-2	+3.4	15
15	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-4	+4.2	15
16	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.7	14
17	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-5.2	14
18	Portsmouth	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.4	13
19	Oxford	12	3	3	6	-2	-0.8	12
20	Southampton	11	2	5	4	-4	+5.6	11
21	Blackburn	11	3	1	7	-7	+2.7	10
22	Sheffield United	12	3	0	9	-11	-0.1	9
23	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-6	-5.3	8
24	Sheffield Weds	12	1	3	8	-15	-9.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+13	+5.5	14
2	Ipswich	7	4	2	1	+6	+8.8	14
3	Preston	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+4	+0.4	14
5	Hull	7	4	2	1	+2	-3.0	14
6	Watford	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.1	13
7	Millwall	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.6	12
8	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	-0.1	11
9	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.1	10
10	Stoke	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
11	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.3	9
12	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.5	9
13	Derby	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.0	9
14	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
15	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.7	8
16	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.6	8
17	Portsmouth	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
18	Wrexham	6	1	3	2	-2	+0.1	6
19	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
20	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
21	Blackburn	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
22	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.6	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	1	6	-15	-7.3	1
24	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-5	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+12	+9.6	14
2	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	+3.2	11
3	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
4	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.2	11
5	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.9	10
6	QPR	7	3	1	3	-4	-2.3	10
7	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.6	9
8	West Brom	7	3	0	4	-3	-3.1	9
9	Wrexham	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.8	8
10	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+0	-5.6	8
11	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.1	8
12	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
13	Oxford	7	2	1	4	-1	-4.1	7
14	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.5	7
15	Portsmouth	5	1	3	1	+0	-1.3	6
16	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-2	+2.1	6
17	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	-0.8	6
18	Sheffield United	7	2	0	5	-6	-0.8	6
19	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.1	5
20	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.4	5
21	Hull	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.9	5
22	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
23	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
24	Watford	6	0	2	4	-5	+0.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.