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Championship
Referee: Matt Donohue
Wrexham
S S S U T
1–1
Full-time
Leicester
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wrexham Leicester
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
4,2
3,0
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 37%
37%
37%
Points per game
1,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
44%
67%
Both score Ø 73%
67%
78%
Average goals
2,7
2,9
Scored
1,4
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,08 xG 0,52
48% Possession 52%
16 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 1
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wrexham 11. · Leicester 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 28 17 7 4 +30 +22.5 58
2 Ipswich 27 14 8 5 +23 +22.2 50
3 Millwall 27 13 7 7 -1 +1.4 46
4 Hull 25 13 5 7 +7 -13.5 44
5 Preston 28 11 10 7 +7 -4.9 43
6 Middlesbrough 24 12 6 6 +5 +6.7 42
7 Stoke 27 12 5 10 +9 -3.7 41
8 Watford 26 11 8 7 +6 +6.3 41
9 Derby 28 11 8 9 +2 -4.4 41
10 Bristol City 28 11 7 10 +7 -0.6 40
11 Wrexham 27 10 10 7 +5 -4.9 40
12 QPR 28 11 7 10 -1 +1.2 40
13 Birmingham 28 10 8 10 +1 +11.9 38
14 Leicester 27 10 7 10 -2 -9.8 37
15 Swansea 28 10 6 12 -4 -7.7 36
16 Southampton 25 8 8 9 +3 +11.8 32
17 Sheffield United 26 10 2 14 -3 +11.9 32
18 Charlton 27 8 8 11 -7 -9.3 32
19 West Brom 28 9 4 15 -12 +5.4 31
20 Norwich 28 8 6 14 -5 -9.9 30
21 Blackburn 27 7 7 13 -11 +5.2 28
22 Portsmouth 25 7 7 11 -13 -6.4 28
23 Oxford 27 5 9 13 -10 -6.2 24
24 Sheffield Weds 27 1 8 18 -36 -25.2 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

30. Sep -25 Leicester – Wrexham 1–1

Match report

Wrexham Leicester
41′
🔁 R. Pereira
↦ J. James
Half-time 1–0
1–0 L. O'Brien
63′
68′
🟨 Jordan Ayew
69′
🔁 L. Page
↦ O. Skipp
G. Thomason 🔁
↦ O. Rathbone
77′
I. Kabore 🔁
↦ R. Longman
78′
78′
🔁 J. Monga
↦ B. De Cordova-Reid
84′
🟨 Ricardo Pereira
90′
J. Vestergaard 1–1
C. Okoli
Callum Doyle 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Wrexham

3-4-2-1
1 A. Okonkwo G
4 M. Cleworth D
5 D. Hyam D
2 C. Doyle D
47 R. Longman M
37 M. James M
18 B. Sheaf M
13 L. Cacace M
20 O. Rathbone F
27 L. O'Brien F
19 K. Moore F
Bench (9)
25 C. Burton
24 D. Scarr
12 I. Kabore
15 G. Dobson
14 G. Thomason
33 N. Broadhead
10 J. Windass
16 J. Rodriguez
28 S. Smith

Coach: Phil Parkinson

Leicester

4-3-3
1 J. Stolarczyk G
17 H. Choudhury D
5 C. Okoli D
23 J. Vestergaard D
4 B. Nelson D
6 J. James M
22 O. Skipp M
14 B. De Cordova-Reid M
7 I. Fatawu F
9 J. Ayew F
10 S. Mavididi F
Bench (9)
31 A. Begovic
21 R. Pereira
56 O. Aluko
33 L. Thomas
24 B. Soumare
25 L. Page
39 S. Thomas
28 J. Monga
20 P. Daka

Coach: Marti Cifuentes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,20
U ✓
3,47
B
3,12
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,86
U2,5 ✓
1,88
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Matt Donohue · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,2 / match
Above average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.