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Champions League
Referee: N Walsh
Villarreal
T T S S T
1–2
Full-time
Ajax
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
5,0
Scored
1,5
2,7
Conceded
1,8
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
2,2
3,0
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,36 xG 0,91
38% Possession 62%
19 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Villarreal Ajax
12′
🟨 Owen Wijndal
Half-time 0–0
T. Buchanan 🔁
↦ A. Moleiro
46′
1–0 T. Oluwaseyi ⚽
R. Marin
49′
54′
🔁 K. Itakura
↦ Y. Regeer
Santiago Mouriño 🟨
60′
61′
⚽ O. Gloukh 1–1
Thomas Partey 🟨
71′
71′
🔁 R. Bounida
↦ K. Dolberg
71′
🔁 S. Steur
↦ J. Mokio
G. Moreno 🔁
↦ A. Perez
72′
G. Mikautadze 🔁
↦ N. Pepe
72′
D. Parejo 🔁
↦ T. Partey
74′
Rafa Marín 🟨
80′
84′
🔁 O. Edvardsen
↦ O. Gloukh
84′
🔁 K. Fitz-Jim
↦ O. Wijndal
88′
🟨 Aaron Bouwman
90′
⚽ O. Edvardsen 1–2
A. Gaaei
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
25 A. Tenas G
15 S. Mourino D
4 R. Marin D
12 R. Veiga D
23 S. Cardona D
19 N. Pepe M
14 S. Comesana M
16 T. Partey M
20 A. Moleiro M
22 A. Perez F
21 T. Oluwaseyi F
Bench (9)
13 D. Conde
1 Luiz Junior
7 G. Moreno
9 G. Mikautadze
10 D. Parejo
17 T. Buchanan
24 A. Pedraza
26 P. Navarro
32 H. Lopez

Coach: Marcelino

Ajax

4-3-3
1 V. Jaros G
3 A. Gaaei D
30 A. Bouwman D
15 Y. Baas D
5 O. Wijndal D
18 D. Klaassen M
6 Y. Regeer M
24 J. Mokio M
10 O. Gloukh F
9 K. Dolberg F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (12)
22 R. Pasveer
12 J. Heerkens
2 L. Rosa
4 K. Itakura
7 R. Moro
17 O. Edvardsen
28 K. Fitz-Jim
37 J. Sutalo
41 G. Alders
43 R. Bounida
48 S. Steur
68 A. Ouazane

Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.