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Championship

Referee: Matthew Corlett

Derby

S U U T S

1–2

Full-time

Wrexham

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Wrexham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

48%

40%

Both score Ø 68%

72%

64%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,35 xG 1,00

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 12. · Wrexham 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	26	15	7	4	+28	+20.0	52
2	Ipswich	25	12	8	5	+18	+19.6	44
3	Watford	25	11	8	6	+8	+7.3	41
4	Preston	25	10	10	5	+9	-4.2	40
5	Millwall	24	11	7	6	-3	+1.0	40
6	Bristol City	25	11	6	8	+11	+1.2	39
7	Middlesbrough	23	11	6	6	+4	+6.8	39
8	Hull	23	11	5	7	+3	-11.8	38
9	QPR	26	11	5	10	-1	+1.9	38
10	Stoke	25	11	4	10	+7	-5.7	37
11	Wrexham	25	9	10	6	+5	-5.2	37
12	Derby	25	9	8	8	+1	-6.3	35
13	Birmingham	26	9	7	10	-1	+10.1	34
14	Leicester	25	9	7	9	-2	-8.4	34
15	Southampton	24	8	8	8	+4	+9.5	32
16	Sheffield United	25	10	2	13	-2	+12.3	32
17	Swansea	25	9	5	11	-5	-7.3	32
18	West Brom	25	9	4	12	-5	+4.5	31
19	Charlton	24	7	7	10	-7	-9.4	28
20	Blackburn	24	7	6	11	-6	+7.8	27
21	Portsmouth	24	6	7	11	-14	-7.7	25
22	Norwich	25	6	6	13	-9	-7.2	24
23	Oxford	25	5	7	13	-10	-7.1	22
24	Sheffield Weds	25	1	8	16	-33	-21.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	+18	+9.5	29
2	Ipswich	13	8	4	1	+13	+15.9	28
3	Watford	13	8	4	1	+11	+7.9	28
4	Birmingham	13	7	5	1	+14	+14.5	26
5	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
6	QPR	13	7	2	4	+7	+7.5	23
7	Preston	13	6	5	2	+7	+0.6	23
8	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	+5	+4.6	23
9	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
10	Millwall	12	7	2	3	+1	+3.4	23
11	West Brom	12	6	4	2	+5	+7.8	22
12	Bristol City	13	6	3	4	+10	+0.8	21
13	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.0	21
14	Stoke	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.3	20
15	Southampton	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.0	19
16	Leicester	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.7	19
17	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.2	18
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
20	Derby	13	4	5	4	-2	-0.1	17
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	-4	+0.2	13
22	Norwich	12	3	1	8	-5	+0.3	10
23	Blackburn	12	2	3	7	-7	+5.4	9
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	-22	-9.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	6	5	3	+10	+10.4	23
2	Derby	12	5	3	4	+3	-6.2	18
3	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	+0.4	18
4	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	+1	+2.5	18
5	Preston	12	4	5	3	+2	-4.8	17
6	Stoke	13	5	2	6	-1	-6.1	17
7	Millwall	12	4	5	3	-4	-2.4	17
8	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
9	Hull	11	4	3	4	+0	-8.6	15
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	3	4	-1	+5.1	15
11	Leicester	13	4	3	6	-5	-10.1	15
12	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	-7	+0.5	15
13	QPR	13	4	3	6	-8	-5.6	15
14	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	+0	-9.8	14
15	Norwich	13	3	5	5	-4	-7.5	14
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-5	-5.3	11
19	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-8	-7.3	10
20	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
21	West Brom	13	3	0	10	-10	-3.3	9
22	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-15	-4.4	8
23	Sheffield Weds	12	1	4	7	-11	-12.4	7
24	Portsmouth	11	1	4	6	-14	-9.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.