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Copa del Rey
Referee: Oliver De La Fuente
0–1
Full-time
Alaves
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mérida AD Alaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
This season — Copa del Rey · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,0
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Mérida AD 61. · Alaves 41.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 2 2 0 0 +10 6
2 Mallorca 2 2 0 0 +7 6
3 Elche 2 2 0 0 +6 6
4 Espanol 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 Getafe 2 2 0 0 +3 6
6 Intercity 2 2 0 0 +3 6
7 Ath Bilbao 2 2 0 0 +3 6
8 Cartagena 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Celta 1 1 0 0 +5 3
10 Levante 1 1 0 0 +4 3
11 Osasuna 1 1 0 0 +3 3
12 Sociedad 1 1 0 0 +3 3
13 Albacete 1 1 0 0 +3 3
14 Cacereño 1 1 0 0 +3 3
15 Eibar 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 La Nucía 1 1 0 0 +2 3
17 Andorra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 UD Logroñés 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Pontevedra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Ibiza 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 CD Coria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Tenerife 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Numancia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
30 Arenteiro 1 1 0 0 +2 3
31 Guijuelo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
32 Sp Gijon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Oviedo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Granada 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Linares Deportivo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Girona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Saguntino 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Arenas Getxo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Ceuta 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Las Palmas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Alaves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Fuentes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
44 Alcora 2 1 0 1 +0 3
45 Real Unión 2 1 0 1 +0 3
46 Mirandes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
47 Sestao River 2 1 0 1 +0 3
48 Barbadás 2 1 0 1 -1 3
49 Velarde 2 1 0 1 -1 3
50 Diocesano 2 1 0 1 -1 3
51 Algar 2 1 0 1 -2 3
52 Cazalegas 2 1 0 1 -2 3
53 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 -2 3
54 Santa Amalia 2 1 0 1 -8 3
55 Alcorcon 2 0 2 0 +0 2
56 Juventud Torremolinos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Huesca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Coruxo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Eldense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Utebo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
61 Mérida AD 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Dinamo San Juan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Malaga 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Real Murcia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Arnedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Ourense CF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Montilla 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Gernika 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
72 Recreativo Huelva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
73 Burgos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
74 Atlético Paso 2 0 1 1 -1 1
75 Rincón 2 0 1 1 -3 1
76 Autol 2 0 1 1 -6 1
77 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Yeclano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Cadiz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 San Roque Lepe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Universitario FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Atlético Lugones 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Los Yébenes SB 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Ponferradina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Unión Adarve 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Quintanar del Rey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Turégano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Ferrol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Lugo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Utrera 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Zaragoza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Cirbonero 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Teruel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Lleida Esportiu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Cardassar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
99 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -2 0
100 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
101 Navalcarnero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
102 Manresa 1 0 0 1 -2 0
103 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Racing Rioja 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Cristo Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Fuenlabrada 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Almazán 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 Lealtad 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Vimenor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
111 San Juan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
112 Almeria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Alzira 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
115 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
116 Amigó 1 0 0 1 -3 0
117 Huétor Tájar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
118 Cordoba 1 0 0 1 -3 0
119 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
120 Olot 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mérida AD Alaves
A. Mukai 🟨
4′
25′
Salva Sevilla 0–1
43′
🟨 A. Sedlar
Half-time 0–1
48′
🟨 V. Laguardia
Busi 🔁
↦ A. Mukai
57′
65′
🔁 Xeber Alkain
↦ Jason
65′
🔁 Miguel de la Fuente
↦ M. Sylla
Carlos Cinta 🔁
↦ Lolo Plá
69′
73′
🔁 Toni Moya
↦ Salva Sevilla
73′
🔁 Jon Guridi
↦ Róber
79′
🟨 J. Owono
E. Ruiz 🟨
82′
Nacho González 🔁
↦ Felipe Alfonso
83′
Fran Viñuela 🔁
↦ Dani Sandoval
83′
José Artiles 🔁
↦ David Larrubia
83′
85′
🟨 R. Duarte
Nacho Gonzalez 🟨
85′
87′
🟨 J. Guridi
91′
🔁 C. Benavídez
↦ Luis Rioja
C. Cinta 🟨
94′
95′
🟨 R. Duarte
95′
🟥 R. Duarte
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Mérida AD

4-3-3
1 Javi Montoya G
19 Felipe Alfonso M
4 Manu Bonaque D
14 Luis Acosta D
5 Erik Ruiz D
20 Álvaro Ramón D
11 Álex Meléndez M
10 Lolo Plá F
16 A. Mukai F
7 Dani Sandoval F
8 David Larrubia M
Bench (10)
23 Busi
15 Carlos Cinta
18 Nacho González
17 Fran Viñuela
21 José Artiles
25 José Andrés
27 Amadou Konate
22 B. Garay
30 Aitor Merino
29 Eneko Cuéllar

Coach: Juanma Barrero

Alaves

4-2-3-1
31 Jesús Owono G
5 Laguardia D
4 A. Sedlar D
3 Rubén Duarte D
2 A. Arroyo D
8 Salva Sevilla M
10 Jason M
20 Róber F
28 Álex Balboa M
7 M. Sylla F
11 Luis Rioja M
Bench (11)
17 Xeber Alkain
9 Miguel de la Fuente
6 Toni Moya
18 Jon Guridi
23 C. Benavídez
27 Javi López
21 A. Rebbach
24 T. Hara
1 Sivera
14 N. Tenaglia
19 N. Maraš

Coach: Luis García

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Oliver De La Fuente · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.