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Copa del Rey
Referee: Imanol Irurtzun
Utebo
2–2
Full-time
Mérida AD

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 1 1 0 0 +9 3
2 Mallorca 1 1 0 0 +6 3
3 Celta 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Levante 1 1 0 0 +4 3
5 Osasuna 1 1 0 0 +3 3
6 Albacete 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 Elche 1 1 0 0 +3 3
8 Cacereño 1 1 0 0 +3 3
9 Espanol 1 1 0 0 +3 3
10 Eibar 1 1 0 0 +3 3
11 La Nucía 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Andorra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 UD Logroñés 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Pontevedra 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 1 0 0 +2 3
16 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +2 3
17 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 Guijuelo 1 1 0 0 +2 3
19 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Ibiza 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 CD Coria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Tenerife 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Mirandes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Numancia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Sp Gijon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
28 Oviedo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Granada 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Cazalegas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Guadalajara 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Linares Deportivo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Girona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Saguntino 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Sestao River 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Arenas Getxo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Ceuta 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Diocesano 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Cartagena 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Intercity 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Las Palmas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Fuentes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
44 Alcora 2 1 0 1 +0 3
45 Barbadás 2 1 0 1 -1 3
46 Velarde 2 1 0 1 -1 3
47 Algar 2 1 0 1 -2 3
48 Santa Amalia 2 1 0 1 -8 3
49 Juventud Torremolinos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Huesca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Coruxo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Eldense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
53 Dinamo San Juan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
54 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
55 Malaga 1 0 1 0 +0 1
56 Atlético Paso 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Real Murcia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Arnedo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Ourense CF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
61 Alcorcon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Montilla 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Gernika 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Recreativo Huelva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Burgos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Rincón 2 0 1 1 -3 1
68 Autol 2 0 1 1 -6 1
69 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 Yeclano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Universitario FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
73 Atlético Lugones 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Los Yébenes SB 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Ponferradina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Unión Adarve 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Quintanar del Rey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Turégano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Ferrol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Lugo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Utrera 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Zaragoza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Cirbonero 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Teruel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Cardassar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
88 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -2 0
89 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
90 Navalcarnero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
91 Manresa 1 0 0 1 -2 0
92 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -2 0
93 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
94 Racing Rioja 1 0 0 1 -2 0
95 Cristo Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
96 Fuenlabrada 1 0 0 1 -2 0
97 Almazán 1 0 0 1 -2 0
98 Lealtad 1 0 0 1 -2 0
99 Vimenor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
100 San Juan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
101 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
102 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
103 Amigó 1 0 0 1 -3 0
104 Huétor Tájar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
105 Cordoba 1 0 0 1 -3 0
106 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
107 Olot 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Utebo Mérida AD
13′
⚽ Erik Ruiz 0–1
Álvaro Ramón
1–1 Albert Rosas ⚽
Dani Suárez
18′
24′
🟨 L. Acosta
27′
🟨 J. Artiles
29′
🟨 E. Ruiz
Berto 🟨
33′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Jona Aso ⚽
Albert Rosas
47′
P. C. Perez A. 🟨
56′
60′
🔁 Nando Copete
↦ Fran Viñuela
60′
🔁 Dani Sandoval
↦ A. Mukai
60′
🔁 Busi
↦ Luis Acosta
J. Pomareta 🟨
63′
73′
⚽ Dani Sandoval 2–2
74′
🔁 David Larrubia
↦ Lolo Plá
Diego Suárez 🔁
↦ Jona Aso
77′
Machote 🔁
↦ Jorge Pomareta
77′
79′
🟨 Nacho Gonzalez
Christian Yus 🔁
↦ David Marín
96′
106′
🟨 C. Cinta
Miguel Mallada 🔁
↦ Álvaro Alvira
110′
D. Fustos 🔁
↦ Dani Suárez
110′
David Martínez 🔁
↦ Toni Pérez
121′
3–2 Albert Rosas ⚽
121′
122′
⚽ Manu Bonaque 3–3
Diego Suárez ❌
penalty missed
123′
124′
⚽ David Larrubia 3–4
Rubén Garcés ❌
penalty missed
125′
126′
⚽ Nacho González 3–5
4–5 Miguel Mallada ⚽
127′
128′
❌ Carlos Cinta
penalty missed
5–5 Álvaro Meseguer ⚽
129′
130′
⚽ José Artiles 5–6
Full-time 5–6

Line-ups

Utebo

1 Guillermo Auré
18 Rubén Garcés
4 Álvaro Meseguer
21 Toni Pérez
5 Jorge Pomareta
3 Álvaro Alvira
15 Jesús Cambil
8 David Marín
20 Albert Rosas
7 Dani Suárez
9 Jona Aso
Bench (7)
6 Machote
16 Diego Suárez
12 Christian Yus
14 Miguel Mallada
17 D. Fustos
11 David Martínez
13 Jon Ander Felipe

Coach: Juan Carlos Beltrán

Mérida AD

13 Juanpa
4 Manu Bonaque
18 Nacho González
14 Luis Acosta
5 Erik Ruiz
20 Álvaro Ramón
21 José Artiles
10 Lolo Plá
16 A. Mukai
17 Fran Viñuela
15 Carlos Cinta
Bench (8)
7 Dani Sandoval
23 Busi
9 Nando Copete
8 David Larrubia
27 Amadou Konate
22 B. Garay
25 José Andrés
19 Felipe Alfonso

Coach: Juanma Barrero

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.