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Copa del Rey
Referee: Javier Alberola
Eldense
U S
1–6
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Eldense Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,7
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
This season — Copa del Rey · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
2,5
1,5
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

41% Possession 59%
12 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 9
5 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Eldense 25. · Ath Bilbao 16. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 3 3 0 0 +14 9
2 Sevilla 3 3 0 0 +10 9
3 Sociedad 3 3 0 0 +9 9
4 Mallorca 3 3 0 0 +9 9
5 Levante 3 3 0 0 +6 9
6 Osasuna 3 3 0 0 +6 9
7 Sp Gijon 3 3 0 0 +6 9
8 Espanol 3 3 0 0 +6 9
9 Ath Madrid 3 3 0 0 +6 9
10 Ceuta 3 3 0 0 +3 9
11 Alaves 3 3 0 0 +3 9
12 Celta 3 2 0 1 +6 6
13 Valladolid 3 2 0 1 +5 6
14 Elche 3 2 0 1 +5 6
15 Cacereño 3 2 0 1 +3 6
16 Ath Bilbao 2 2 0 0 +3 6
17 Getafe 3 2 0 1 +2 6
18 Intercity 3 2 0 1 +2 6
19 Gimnastic 3 2 0 1 +2 6
20 Pontevedra 3 2 0 1 +1 6
21 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3 2 0 1 +0 6
22 Oviedo 3 2 0 1 +0 6
23 Linares Deportivo 3 2 0 1 -3 6
24 Albacete 2 1 1 0 +3 4
25 Eldense 2 1 1 0 +1 4
26 UD Logroñés 3 1 1 1 +1 4
27 Saguntino 2 1 1 0 +1 4
28 Las Palmas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
29 Vallecano 3 1 1 1 +0 4
30 La Nucía 3 1 1 1 -1 4
31 Cartagena 3 1 1 1 -3 4
32 Betis 1 1 0 0 +3 3
33 Valencia 1 1 0 0 +3 3
34 Eibar 2 1 0 1 +2 3
35 Andorra 2 1 0 1 +1 3
36 Ibiza 2 1 0 1 +1 3
37 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Guijuelo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
39 Tenerife 2 1 0 1 +1 3
40 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
42 Fuentes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
43 Granada 2 1 0 1 +0 3
44 Alcora 2 1 0 1 +0 3
45 Girona 2 1 0 1 +0 3
46 Real Unión 2 1 0 1 +0 3
47 Arenteiro 2 1 0 1 +0 3
48 Mirandes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
49 Sestao River 2 1 0 1 +0 3
50 Numancia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
51 Barbadás 2 1 0 1 -1 3
52 Velarde 2 1 0 1 -1 3
53 Diocesano 2 1 0 1 -1 3
54 Algar 2 1 0 1 -2 3
55 Cazalegas 2 1 0 1 -2 3
56 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 -2 3
57 Arenas Getxo 2 1 0 1 -3 3
58 CD Coria 2 1 0 1 -3 3
59 Santa Amalia 2 1 0 1 -8 3
60 Alcorcon 2 0 2 0 +0 2
61 Huesca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Coruxo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Utebo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Dinamo San Juan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Peña Deportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Real Murcia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Atlético Baleares 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Ourense CF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Montilla 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Leganes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Recreativo Huelva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
72 Malaga 2 0 1 1 -1 1
73 Mérida AD 2 0 1 1 -1 1
74 Atlético Paso 2 0 1 1 -1 1
75 Burgos 2 0 1 1 -1 1
76 Arnedo 2 0 1 1 -2 1
77 Juventud Torremolinos 2 0 1 1 -3 1
78 Rincón 2 0 1 1 -3 1
79 Gernika 2 0 1 1 -3 1
80 Autol 2 0 1 1 -6 1
81 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Gimnástica Torrelavega 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 Yeclano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Cadiz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 San Roque Lepe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Universitario FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Atlético Lugones 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Los Yébenes SB 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Ponferradina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Unión Adarve 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Quintanar del Rey 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Turégano 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Amorebieta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Ferrol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Lugo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Utrera 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Santander 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Zaragoza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Alfaro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Cirbonero 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Teruel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Lleida Esportiu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Cardassar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 Hércules 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Navalcarnero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Manresa 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 Rayo Majadahonda 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 La Coruna 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Racing Rioja 1 0 0 1 -2 0
111 Cristo Atlético 1 0 0 1 -2 0
112 Fuenlabrada 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Almazán 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 Lealtad 1 0 0 1 -2 0
115 Vimenor 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 San Juan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Almeria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Alzira 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -3 0
120 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
121 Amigó 1 0 0 1 -3 0
122 Huétor Tájar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
123 Cordoba 1 0 0 1 -3 0
124 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
125 Olot 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Eldense Ath Bilbao
35′
⚽ Nico Williams 0–1
Pajarero 🟨
40′
41′
⚽ Álex Berenguer 0–2
Half-time 0–2
Fran Carnicer 🟨
52′
Mario Soberón 🔁
↦ Juanto
57′
Jesús Clemente 🔁
↦ Fran Carnicer
57′
Carlos Hernández 🔁
↦ Fernando Pajarero
58′
59′
⚽ Oier Zarraga 0–3
Muniain
65′
⚽ Álex Berenguer 0–4
Mikel Vesga
R. Correia 🔁
↦ Álex Martínez
66′
1–4 Mario Soberón ⚽
Manu Nieto
67′
68′
🔁 Gorka Guruzeta
↦ Nico Williams
69′
🔁 Aitor Paredes
↦ Yeray
74′
⚽ R. Correia 2–4
own goal
77′
🔁 Dani García
↦ Mikel Vesga
77′
🔁 Balenziaga
↦ Yuri
78′
🔁 Asier Villalibre
↦ Álex Berenguer
Carlos Cerdán 🔁
↦ José Antonio Pardo
84′
90′
⚽ Muniain 2–5
Gorka Guruzeta
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

Eldense

4-4-2
13 D. Stamatakis G
20 Xavi Estació D
6 Fernando Pajarero D
15 Diego González D
3 Álex Martínez D
7 Cris Montes
4 José Antonio Pardo M
8 Sergio Ortu M
10 Fran Carnicer M
11 Manu Nieto F
22 Juanto F
Bench (11)
9 Mario Soberón
17 Jesús Clemente
12 Carlos Hernández
16 R. Correia
29 Carlos Cerdán
19 Albert Luque
5 Iván Forte
1 Guille Vallejo
18 Pedro Capó
2 Toni Abad
23 Cristian López

Coach: Fernando Estévez

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
15 Lekue D
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D
17 Yuri D
19 Oier Zarraga M
6 Mikel Vesga M
11 Nico Williams M
10 Muniain M
7 Álex Berenguer M
22 Raúl García F
Bench (11)
12 Gorka Guruzeta
31 Aitor Paredes
14 Dani García
24 Balenziaga
20 Asier Villalibre
8 Oihan Sancet
9 I. Williams
18 De Marcos
16 Unai Vencedor
1 Unai Simón
23 Ander Herrera

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Javier Alberola · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.