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Copa del Rey

Referee: Pablo González

Lugo

T T S S S

1–3

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugo Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Betis	2	2	0	0	+12	6
3	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Girona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Espanol	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Lugo	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Castellon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
24	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
25	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Melilla	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Malaga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Alcorcon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Levante	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Antequera	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Cayón	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
56	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
57	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
58	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
59	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
60	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
61	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
62	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
70	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
71	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Linares Deportivo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
73	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
74	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
20	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
21	Melilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
28	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
30	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Sestao River	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Linares Deportivo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Arenteiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Antequera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Cayón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
73	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
74	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
75	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Betis	2	2	0	0	+12	6
3	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Girona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
53	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.