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Coppa Italia

Referee: L Marinelli

Atalanta

T S S U U

0–1

Full-time

Bologna

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

7,0

4,0

Scored

6,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+5,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 10. · Bologna 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	4	3	0	1	-1	9
2	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	-1	6
5	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	-2	6
6	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+3	4
7	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Monza	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Milan	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Roma	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Pisa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Carrarese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Avellino	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
24	Sampdoria	3	0	2	1	-3	2
25	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cremonese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
32	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	1
33	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
4	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Milan	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Roma	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Empoli	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Brescia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Cesena	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Avellino	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Torino	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Carrarese	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Torres	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	3	2	0	1	-3	6
2	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Pisa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Mantova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-3	3
6	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-4	3
7	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Modena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Catania	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Brescia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
27	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-4	0
28	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-4	0
29	Monza	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.