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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Atalanta

S S S U T

1–2

Full-time

Bologna

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,2

2,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 52%

54%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

46%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,35 xG 1,33

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 6. · Bologna 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	22	3	1	+55	+36.6	69
2	Juventus	26	17	6	3	+22	+22.7	57
3	Milan	27	17	5	5	+19	+8.6	56
4	Bologna	26	13	9	4	+16	+7.1	48
5	Roma	27	14	5	8	+19	+12.9	47
6	Atalanta	26	14	4	8	+20	+11.5	46
7	Fiorentina	27	12	6	9	+9	+1.0	42
8	Napoli	26	11	7	8	+10	+16.9	40
9	Lazio	27	12	4	11	+3	+0.3	40
10	Torino	27	9	10	8	+0	+2.9	37
11	Monza	27	9	9	9	-6	-9.6	36
12	Genoa	26	8	9	9	-3	-4.2	33
13	Lecce	27	5	10	12	-19	-13.3	25
14	Empoli	27	6	7	14	-19	-7.5	25
15	Udinese	27	3	15	9	-15	-6.5	24
16	Frosinone	27	6	6	15	-21	-12.8	24
17	Verona	27	5	8	14	-12	-9.5	23
18	Cagliari	27	5	8	14	-22	-11.8	23
19	Sassuolo	27	5	5	17	-23	-14.0	20
20	Salernitana	27	2	8	17	-33	-31.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	14	11	2	1	+19	+6.5	35
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+28	+22.6	34
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Roma	14	9	3	2	+18	+10.1	30
5	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+12	+13.6	30
6	Milan	13	9	2	2	+14	+6.7	29
7	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+11	+6.3	26
8	Torino	14	6	6	2	+6	+7.6	24
9	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.3	21
10	Frosinone	14	6	3	5	+0	-0.9	21
11	Genoa	13	5	5	3	+1	-1.9	20
12	Monza	14	5	5	4	+0	-4.0	20
13	Lecce	13	5	4	4	-6	-2.8	19
14	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
15	Verona	13	4	5	4	-1	-2.1	17
16	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	-6	+2.5	16
17	Udinese	14	1	9	4	-4	+2.6	12
18	Sassuolo	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.5	12
19	Empoli	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.7	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	2	0	+27	+14.0	35
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	14	8	3	3	+5	+1.9	27
4	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+9	+7.6	22
5	Lazio	14	6	1	7	+0	-5.0	19
6	Roma	13	5	2	6	+1	+2.7	17
7	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-2	-5.3	16
8	Monza	13	4	4	5	-6	-5.6	16
9	Atalanta	13	4	3	6	-2	-0.6	15
10	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.8	15
11	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
12	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
13	Torino	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.7	13
14	Udinese	13	2	6	5	-11	-9.1	12
15	Sassuolo	14	2	2	10	-15	-9.5	8
16	Cagliari	14	1	4	9	-16	-14.3	7
17	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-17	-19.6	7
18	Verona	14	1	3	10	-11	-7.4	6
19	Lecce	14	0	6	8	-13	-10.5	6
20	Frosinone	13	0	3	10	-21	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.