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Coppa Italia
Referee: M Drigo
Monza
U U S S T
3–0
Full-time
Avellino
S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Avellino
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,3
1,8
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%
22 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 1
3 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Feb -26 Monza – Avellino 2–1 12. Sep -25 Avellino – Monza 2–1

Match report

Monza Avellino
1–0 G. Varela ⚽
22′
2–0 G. Varela ⚽
P. Cutrone
45′
Half-time 2–0
47′
🟨 Brando Moruzzi
3–0 O. Forson ⚽
P. Cutrone
51′
55′
🔁 A. Favilli
↦ T. Biasci
55′
🔁 L. Pandolfi
↦ D. Fila
59′
🔁 D. Sounas
↦ L. Palmiero
59′
🔁 L. Di Maggio
↦ M. Palumbo
A. Bakoune 🔁
↦ R. Mangas
70′
A. Colpani 🔁
↦ O. Forson
70′
73′
🔁 M. Venturi
↦ L. Simic
L. Lucchesi 🔁
↦ S. Birindelli
81′
A. Petagna 🔁
↦ G. Varela
81′
N. Galazzi 🔁
↦ M. Mout
85′
91′
🟨 Dimitrios Sounas
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Monza

3-4-2-1
20 D. Thiam G
60 E. Kouadio D
15 F. Delli Carri D
44 A. Carboni D
19 S. Birindelli M
8 F. Ondoa
80 M. Mout M
7 R. Mangas M
11 O. Forson F
10 P. Cutrone F
9 G. Varela F
Bench (12)
13 S. Pizzignacco
43 A. Strajnar
6 V. Antov
2 A. Brorsson
3 L. Lucchesi
24 A. Bakoune
28 A. Colpani
23 N. Galazzi
37 A. Petagna
46 J. Robinson
22 S. Loubao
47 D. Mota

Coach: Ivan Juric

Avellino

4-3-1-2
50 T. Martinelli G
29 T. Cancellotti D
4 A. Izzo D
44 L. Simic D
27 B. Moruzzi D
20 M. Palumbo M
6 L. Palmiero M
39 M. Besaggio M
10 R. Russo M
11 D. Fila F
14 T. Biasci F
Bench (12)
1 A. Iannarilli
22 J. Sassi
3 M. Sala
56 P. Enrici
63 A. Fontanarosa
24 D. Sounas
23 M. Venturi
16 G. Faticanti
28 F. Maisto
8 L. Di Maggio
99 A. Favilli
7 L. Pandolfi

Coach: Alessandro Nesta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.