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Coupe de France
Referee: R Buquet
Paris SG
S U S S S
1–0
Full-time
Rennes
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Rennes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coupe de France · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 88%
100%
75%
Points per game
3,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
75%
75%
Average goals
5,5
3,8
Scored
4,8
3,0
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+4,0
+2,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%
10 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paris SG 4. · Rennes 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Le Puy Foot 6 5 0 1 +6 15
2 Valenciennes 7 4 2 1 +3 14
3 Lyon 5 4 1 0 +8 13
4 Paris SG 4 4 0 0 +16 12
5 Laval 5 4 0 1 +10 12
6 Saint-Priest 5 4 0 1 +8 12
7 Rouen 6 3 3 0 +4 12
8 Rennes 4 3 1 0 +9 10
9 Strasbourg 4 3 1 0 +8 10
10 Sochaux 5 3 1 1 +1 10
11 Rodez 4 3 0 1 +14 9
12 Romorantin 4 3 0 1 +8 9
13 Bergerac 4 3 0 1 +6 9
14 Orleans 4 3 0 1 +3 9
15 Racing Colombes 92 4 3 0 1 +3 9
16 Feignies-Aulnoye 4 3 0 1 -1 9
17 Chateauroux 4 2 1 1 +4 7
18 Trélissac 4 2 1 1 +4 7
19 Entente S St Gratien 3 2 1 0 +3 7
20 Nice 4 2 1 1 +2 7
21 Paris FC 4 2 1 1 +2 7
22 Les Herbiers 3 2 1 0 +2 7
23 Dunkerque 4 2 1 1 +1 7
24 Lille 3 2 0 1 +12 6
25 Olympique d'Alès 3 2 0 1 +5 6
26 Chambly Thelle FC 3 2 0 1 +5 6
27 Caen 3 2 0 1 +5 6
28 Quevilly Rouen 3 2 0 1 +5 6
29 Thionville Lusitanos 3 2 0 1 +4 6
30 Lyon Duchere 3 2 0 1 +3 6
31 Sarreguemines 3 2 0 1 +3 6
32 Amiens 3 2 0 1 +3 6
33 Feurs 3 2 0 1 +2 6
34 Montpellier 3 2 0 1 +2 6
35 Pau FC 3 2 0 1 +2 6
36 Libourne 3 2 0 1 +2 6
37 Nimes 3 2 0 1 +2 6
38 Angers 3 2 0 1 +2 6
39 Dinan Léhon 3 2 0 1 +1 6
40 Brest 3 2 0 1 +0 6
41 Le Havre 3 2 0 1 +0 6
42 Dieppe 3 2 0 1 -1 6
43 Auxerre 3 1 2 0 +3 5
44 Monaco 3 1 2 0 +2 5
45 Bordeaux 4 1 2 1 +0 5
46 Toulouse 2 1 1 0 +3 4
47 Reims 2 1 1 0 +3 4
48 Cannes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
49 Grenoble 2 1 1 0 +1 4
50 Union Cosnoise 2 1 1 0 +1 4
51 Epinal 2 1 1 0 +1 4
52 Mulhouse 2 1 1 0 +1 4
53 Paimpol 2 1 1 0 +1 4
54 Marseille 2 1 1 0 +1 4
55 Blagnac 2 1 1 0 +1 4
56 Fleury 91 2 1 1 0 +1 4
57 Sarre Union 2 1 1 0 +1 4
58 Avoine OCC 3 1 1 1 -1 4
59 Louhans-Cuiseaux 3 1 1 1 -1 4
60 Guingamp 3 1 1 1 -1 4
61 Chambéry 3 1 1 1 -2 4
62 Pontarlier 3 1 1 1 -2 4
63 Revel 3 1 1 1 -6 4
64 Dijon 2 1 0 1 +4 3
65 Vitré 2 1 0 1 +4 3
66 Métropole Troyenne 2 1 0 1 +2 3
67 Ajaccio 2 1 0 1 +2 3
68 Villers Houlgate CF 2 1 0 1 +2 3
69 Nantes 2 1 0 1 +2 3
70 St Etienne 2 1 0 1 +2 3
71 Martigues 2 1 0 1 +1 3
72 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 2 1 0 1 +1 3
73 Pontivy GSI 2 1 0 1 +1 3
74 Furiani-Agliani 2 1 0 1 +1 3
75 Entente Itancourt-Neu. 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Castanet 2 1 0 1 +0 3
77 Ergué-Gaberic 2 1 0 1 +0 3
78 Thaon 2 1 0 1 +0 3
79 Annecy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
80 Plessis Robinson 92 2 1 0 1 +0 3
81 AG Caennaise 2 1 0 1 +0 3
82 Angoulême 2 1 0 1 +0 3
83 Panazol 2 1 0 1 -1 3
84 Villenave 2 1 0 1 -1 3
85 Biesheim 2 1 0 1 -1 3
86 Hauts Lyonnais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
87 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 2 1 0 1 -1 3
88 RC Calais 2 1 0 1 -2 3
89 Saint-Meziery 2 1 0 1 -2 3
90 Coulaines 2 1 0 1 -3 3
91 JS Douvres 2 1 0 1 -3 3
92 Stade Mayennais 2 1 0 1 -8 3
93 Golden Lion 2 1 0 1 -11 3
94 Reims Sainte-Anne 2 0 2 0 +0 2
95 Saint-Omer 3 0 2 1 -1 2
96 Fabrègues 3 0 2 1 -3 2
97 Challans 3 0 2 1 -4 2
98 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Lens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Villejuif 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Aubagne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Squadra Valincu ARR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Nœux-les-Mines 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Étoile Maritime 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Metz 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Stade Plabennec 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Boulogne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Canet Roussillon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Limonest 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Hyères 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Forbach 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 ASPTT Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Stade Briochin 2 0 1 1 -1 1
116 Thonon Évian 2 0 1 1 -1 1
117 Clermont 2 0 1 1 -2 1
118 Saint-Denis 2 0 1 1 -2 1
119 Domerat 2 0 1 1 -3 1
120 Chaponnay-Marennes 2 0 1 1 -3 1
121 Blériot-Plage 2 0 1 1 -3 1
122 Moulien 2 0 1 1 -4 1
123 Geispolsheim 2 0 1 1 -4 1
124 Croix Football IC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 Dives-Cabourg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 Schweighouse s/Moder 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Red Star 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Lorient 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Jura Sud Foot 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Mâcon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Roche Saint-Genest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Stade Pontivy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Avranches 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Troyes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Villefranche 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Brissac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Fos 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Drapeau Fougères 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Longueau 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 France Aizenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Flers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 US Laon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Choisy au Bac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Volvic 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 APM Metz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
153 Vierzon FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
154 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
155 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -1 0
156 Pirae 1 0 0 1 -1 0
157 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -1 0
158 Colmar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
159 Torcy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
160 Isle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
161 Morlaas Est-Bearn 1 0 0 1 -1 0
162 Aunis Avenir 1 0 0 1 -1 0
163 Jarville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Velay 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Saint-Renan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 TA Rennes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Roannais Foot 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Haguenau 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 Villerupt Thil 1 0 0 1 -2 0
170 Neuville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -2 0
172 Plougastel 1 0 0 1 -2 0
173 Noisy-le-Sec 1 0 0 1 -2 0
174 Le Poiré sur Vie 1 0 0 1 -2 0
175 Seyssins 1 0 0 1 -2 0
176 Saint-Michel 91 1 0 0 1 -2 0
177 Camon 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 Bastia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Le Geldar 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Le Quesnoy 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Toulouse Métropole 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
184 Loon-Plage 1 0 0 1 -3 0
185 Bourg-en-bresse 01 1 0 0 1 -3 0
186 Liffré 1 0 0 1 -3 0
187 St-Aubin Guérande 1 0 0 1 -3 0
188 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -4 0
189 Lavernose Lherm 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Montdidier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 Montlouis 1 0 0 1 -4 0
192 Auch 1 0 0 1 -4 0
193 FC Equeurdreville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
194 Rosador 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Provin 1 0 0 1 -5 0
196 Doullens 1 0 0 1 -6 0
197 Châteaugiron 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paris SG Rennes
1–0 K. Mbappé
Fabián Ruiz
40′
Half-time 1–0
56′
🔁 M. Terrier
↦ L. Blas
56′
🔁 A. Seidu
↦ G. Doué
Ousmane Dembélé 🟨
69′
M. Škriniar 🔁
↦ Nuno Mendes
75′
75′
🔁 E. Le Fée
↦ B. Santamaría
Danilo Pereira 🔁
↦ Marquinhos
76′
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ O. Dembélé
76′
M. Ugarte 🔁
↦ W. Zaïre-Emery
76′
81′
🟨 Alidu Seidu
82′
🔁 F. Rieder
↦ D. Doué
82′
🔁 I. Salah
↦ A. Gouiri
R. Kolo Muani 🔁
↦ Lee Kang-In
84′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-4-2
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
21 L. Hernández D
25 Nuno Mendes D
19 Lee Kang-In M
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 O. Dembélé F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
37 M. Škriniar
15 Danilo Pereira
11 Marco Asensio
4 M. Ugarte
23 R. Kolo Muani
9 Gonçalo Ramos
26 N. Mukiele
1 K. Navas
28 Carlos Soler

Coach: Luis Enrique

Rennes

4-2-3-1
30 S. Mandanda G
17 G. Doué D
23 W. Omari D
5 A. Theate D
3 A. Truffert D
8 B. Santamaría M
33 D. Doué M
14 B. Bourigeaud M
10 A. Gouiri M
11 L. Blas M
9 A. Kalimuendo F
Bench (9)
7 M. Terrier
36 A. Seidu
28 E. Le Fée
32 F. Rieder
34 I. Salah
6 A. Matusiwa
16 J. Belocian
1 G. Gallon
4 C. Wooh

Coach: J. Stéphan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Buquet · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.