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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Arsenal

S S S S U

2–0

Full-time

Luton

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,7

4,5

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

69%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

66%

70%

Both score Ø 64%

48%

80%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,4

1,4

Conceded

0,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,82 xG 0,34

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	20	7	2	+40	+31.1	67
2	Arsenal	29	20	5	4	+46	+37.4	65
3	Man City	29	19	7	3	+35	+30.2	64
4	Aston Villa	30	18	5	7	+20	+9.7	59
5	Tottenham	30	17	6	7	+18	+4.3	57
6	Man United	29	15	3	11	+0	-7.3	48
7	West Ham	31	12	9	10	-5	-12.3	45
8	Newcastle	30	13	5	12	+12	+5.8	44
9	Brighton	29	11	9	9	+5	+4.7	42
10	Wolves	30	12	6	12	-4	-10.2	42
11	Bournemouth	30	11	8	11	-9	-1.0	41
12	Chelsea	28	11	7	10	+2	+12.3	40
13	Fulham	31	11	6	14	-3	-11.7	39
14	Everton	30	8	8	14	-11	+1.3	32
15	Crystal Palace	30	7	9	14	-16	-7.5	30
16	Nott'm Forest	31	7	8	16	-14	-5.9	29
17	Brentford	30	7	6	17	-13	+3.4	27
18	Luton	30	5	7	18	-19	-27.6	22
19	Burnley	31	4	7	20	-34	-25.4	19
20	Sheffield United	29	3	6	20	-50	-31.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+27	+29.6	39
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+23	+22.6	35
3	Man City	15	10	5	0	+22	+15.9	35
4	Aston Villa	15	11	1	3	+18	+11.5	34
5	Newcastle	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.3	33
6	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+11	+7.7	33
7	Fulham	15	9	1	5	+14	+2.7	28
8	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
9	West Ham	16	6	7	3	+3	-3.1	25
10	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
11	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
12	Bournemouth	16	6	5	5	-3	+2.2	23
13	Chelsea	14	6	4	4	+3	+13.6	22
14	Nott'm Forest	16	5	4	7	+0	+1.0	19
15	Brentford	15	4	5	6	-5	+5.2	17
16	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-1	+2.7	16
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	15	3	3	9	-4	-4.1	12
19	Burnley	16	2	3	11	-20	-5.0	9
20	Sheffield United	15	2	3	10	-30	-13.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+23	+14.8	30
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+13	+14.3	29
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.8	25
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+7	-3.4	24
6	Man United	15	7	2	6	-1	-9.9	23
7	West Ham	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.2	20
8	Everton	16	5	4	7	-8	-7.6	19
9	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
10	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-5	-5.5	18
11	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
12	Brighton	15	4	3	8	-7	-3.4	15
13	Crystal Palace	16	3	5	8	-15	-10.2	14
14	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-7	-11.5	11
15	Fulham	16	2	5	9	-17	-14.5	11
16	Brentford	15	3	1	11	-8	-1.8	10
17	Burnley	15	2	4	9	-14	-20.5	10
18	Nott'm Forest	15	2	4	9	-14	-6.9	10
19	Luton	15	2	4	9	-15	-23.5	10
20	Sheffield United	14	1	3	10	-20	-17.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.