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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Montpellier

T S T U S

2–6

Full-time

Paris SG

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

24%

64%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

64%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

60%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,58 xG 1,73

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 13. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	16	8	1	+35	+21.4	56
2	Brest	26	13	8	5	+16	+9.1	47
3	Monaco	26	13	7	6	+11	+7.3	46
4	Lille	26	11	10	5	+14	+12.7	43
5	Nice	26	12	7	7	+7	+10.0	43
6	Lens	26	12	6	8	+8	+2.5	42
7	Marseille	26	10	9	7	+12	+18.0	39
8	Rennes	26	10	9	7	+9	+8.4	39
9	Reims	26	11	5	10	-1	+6.0	38
10	Lyon	26	10	4	12	-10	-6.3	34
11	Toulouse	26	7	8	11	-7	-8.1	29
12	Strasbourg	26	7	8	11	-11	-4.4	29
13	Montpellier	25	6	9	10	-5	-0.4	27
14	Le Havre	26	6	9	11	-7	-11.6	27
15	Lorient	26	6	8	12	-14	-14.7	26
16	Nantes	26	7	4	15	-17	-12.1	25
17	Metz	26	6	5	15	-16	-17.1	23
18	Clermont	26	4	8	14	-24	-20.8	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	8	5	0	+17	+15.8	29
2	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
3	Lille	12	8	3	1	+17	+16.5	27
4	Brest	13	7	5	1	+12	+11.6	26
5	Nice	13	7	4	2	+8	+8.3	25
6	Rennes	14	7	3	4	+10	+11.3	24
7	Lens	13	7	2	4	+6	+5.8	23
8	Monaco	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
9	Reims	13	6	2	5	+0	+6.1	20
10	Le Havre	12	5	2	5	+2	+3.0	17
11	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-4	-0.3	15
12	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-7	+0.2	15
13	Montpellier	13	2	8	3	+1	+6.5	14
14	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	+0	+4.1	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-4	-5.8	13
16	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-7	-4.3	12
17	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-7.4	10
18	Metz	12	2	3	7	-4	-1.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+4	-0.7	25
3	Brest	13	6	3	4	+4	-2.5	21
4	Lens	13	5	4	4	+2	-3.3	19
5	Lyon	13	6	1	6	-3	-6.5	19
6	Reims	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.1	18
7	Nice	13	5	3	5	-1	+1.7	18
8	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
9	Rennes	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.9	15
10	Toulouse	13	4	3	6	-7	-12.2	15
11	Strasbourg	13	3	5	5	-7	-4.2	14
12	Metz	14	4	2	8	-12	-15.4	14
13	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-6	-6.9	13
14	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-10	-9.0	13
15	Nantes	12	4	1	7	-10	-7.8	13
16	Marseille	13	2	4	7	-5	+2.2	10
17	Le Havre	14	1	7	6	-9	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.