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Taça de Portugal

Atlético CP

T S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Lagoa

S T T

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atlético CP Lagoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitória de Sernache	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+9	3
3	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	Alcochetense	1	1	0	0	+8	3
5	Portel	1	1	0	0	+8	3
6	Guarda	1	1	0	0	+6	3
7	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Mação	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Varzim	2	1	0	1	+3	3
16	Madalena	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Aljustrelense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Santo Antonio	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Fátima	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Fazendense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Real	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Rebordosa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Alpendorada	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Montalegre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ponte da Barca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Mortágua	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Florgrade	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Maia Lidador	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Vila Meã	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Atlético Malveira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Sousense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Mocarriense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Régua	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Espinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Pevidem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Caldas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	AD Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Ermesinde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	SC Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Correlhã	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	União Montemor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Pacos de Brandao	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Nazarenos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Penalva Castelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Uniao de Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
94	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
95	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-5	0
96	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-6	0
97	Minas de Argozelo	1	0	0	1	-8	0
98	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
99	Messejanense	1	0	0	1	-8	0
100	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+9	3
2	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+8	3
3	Alcochetense	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Mação	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Fátima	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Vitória de Sernache	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Fazendense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Rebordosa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Montalegre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Florgrade	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Maia Lidador	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Atlético Malveira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Régua	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Caldas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	AD Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Ermesinde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Naval 1893	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	SC Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
41	Real	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Correlhã	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	União Montemor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Nazarenos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
46	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
48	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
49	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
50	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-4	0
51	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-6	0
52	Messejanense	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Portel	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Guarda	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Madalena	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Academica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Aljustrelense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Vitória de Sernache	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Santo Antonio	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Naval 1893	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Alpendorada	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Ponte da Barca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Mortágua	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Vila Meã	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Sousense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Mocarriense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Espinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Pevidem	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Pacos de Brandao	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Penalva Castelo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
47	Uniao de Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
48	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-5	0
50	Minas de Argozelo	1	0	0	1	-8	0
51	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
52	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.