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Premiership
Referee: John Beaton
ST Johnstone
T T S T T
4–3
Full-time
Kilmarnock
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

ST Johnstone Kilmarnock
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
0,8
2,5
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,03 xG 0,92
55% Possession 45%
15 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
6 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. May -25 ST Johnstone – Kilmarnock 0–2 15. Feb -25 Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone 3–1 23. Nov -24 ST Johnstone – Kilmarnock 1–0 11. Aug -24 Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone 0–3 13. Apr -24 ST Johnstone – Kilmarnock 0–2

Match report

ST Johnstone Kilmarnock
1–0 J. Fowler ⚽
J. Gullan
16′
21′
🟨 Tyreece John-Jules
37′
⚽ G. Kiltie 1–1
T. Lowery
Half-time 1–1
47′
🔁 J. Brandon
↦ T. John-Jules
2–1 C. Diabate ⚽
J. Gullan
47′
Liam Smith 🟨
49′
49′
⚽ J. Hugill 2–2
Cheick Diabate 🟨
52′
53′
⚽ J. Holt 3–2
own goal
59′
🔁 R. Mathurin
↦ N. Clescenco
59′
🔁 B. Rice
↦ A. Tshibola
L. Chalmers 🔁
↦ J. Holt
61′
K. Fotheringham 🔁
↦ R. Paton
61′
66′
🔁 M. O'Hara
↦ E. Ring
L. Lloyd 🔁
↦ R. McAlear
69′
3–3 M. Schjonning-Larsen ⚽
own goal
69′
4–3 K. Fotheringham ⚽
J. Fowler
80′
82′
🟨 Jamie Brandon
M. Tait 🔁
↦ J. Fowler
84′
J. Baird 🔁
↦ J. Gullan
85′
85′
🔁 I. Owen
↦ G. Kiltie
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

ST Johnstone

4-2-3-1
1 T. Steward G
33 L. Smith D
5 Z. Mitchell D
3 C. Diabate D
14 M. Foulds D
42 R. McAlear M
8 J. Holt M
11 S. Stanton M
10 J. Gullan M
99 R. Paton M
9 J. Fowler F
Bench (9)
20 R. Sinclair
23 L. Chalmers
4 M. Boyes
19 D. Finlayson
25 M. Tait
7 T. Steven
15 J. Baird
17 L. Lloyd
18 K. Fotheringham

Coach: Simo Valakari

Kilmarnock

4-4-1-1
1 M. Stryjek G
8 E. Ring D
25 E. Schilte-Brown D
14 G. Stanger D
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen D
11 G. Kiltie M
36 A. Tshibola M
18 T. Lowery M
20 N. Clescenco M
10 T. John-Jules F
9 J. Hugill F
Bench (9)
12 C. Ferrie
7 R. McKenzie
27 I. Owen
5 M. O'Hara
2 J. Brandon
23 R. Mathurin
15 J. Yfeko
49 B. Rice
39 E. Bowie

Coach: Neil McCann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,17
🔒
U
3,40
🔒
B
3,08
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,76
🔒
U2,5
1,97
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.