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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Dortmund

T U S S S

3–3

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

4,2

5,2

Scored

2,8

4,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+3,2

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 60%

53%

67%

Points per game

1,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

87%

80%

Both score Ø 63%

53%

73%

Average goals

3,7

3,9

Scored

2,5

2,8

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · RB Leipzig 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	M'gladbach	15	10	1	4	+13	31
3	Dortmund	15	8	5	2	+18	29
4	Schalke 04	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	Bayern Munich	15	8	3	4	+20	27
6	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	+6	25
7	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+2	25
8	Wolfsburg	15	6	5	4	+2	23
9	Hoffenheim	15	6	3	6	-6	21
10	Union Berlin	15	6	2	7	-1	20
11	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	-4	20
12	Ein Frankfurt	15	5	3	7	+1	18
13	Mainz	16	6	0	10	-13	18
14	Hertha	15	4	3	8	-8	15
15	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-17	14
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	3	3	9	-16	12
17	FC Koln	15	3	2	10	-16	11
18	Paderborn	15	2	3	10	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+17	17
3	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+17	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+7	15
5	Schalke 04	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Union Berlin	8	5	0	3	+3	15
7	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+12	14
8	Freiburg	7	4	2	1	+5	14
9	Leverkusen	8	3	4	1	+3	13
10	Wolfsburg	8	3	3	2	+0	12
11	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	Hertha	7	3	0	4	-3	9
14	Mainz	7	3	0	4	-4	9
15	FC Koln	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	2	1	4	-7	7
17	Werder Bremen	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Paderborn	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	8	6	1	1	+14	19
2	Schalke 04	7	4	1	2	+5	13
3	M'gladbach	7	4	0	3	+3	12
4	Dortmund	8	3	3	2	+1	12
5	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	-1	12
6	Bayern Munich	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Wolfsburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Freiburg	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Hoffenheim	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Werder Bremen	8	2	3	3	-6	9
11	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	-6	9
12	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
13	Hertha	8	1	3	4	-5	6
14	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Paderborn	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	FC Koln	8	1	1	6	-13	4
18	Ein Frankfurt	7	1	0	6	-6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.