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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Dortmund

U U U S U

1–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 58%

44%

72%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

56%

61%

Both score Ø 64%

72%

56%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,1

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 3

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

5 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · RB Leipzig 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	14	4	1	+31	46
2	RB Leipzig	18	13	3	2	+20	42
3	Hoffenheim	19	8	10	1	+16	34
4	Hertha	19	10	3	6	+6	33
5	FC Koln	19	8	8	3	+12	32
6	Ein Frankfurt	18	9	5	4	+8	32
7	Dortmund	18	8	7	3	+17	31
8	Freiburg	19	8	2	9	-9	26
9	Leverkusen	19	7	3	9	-1	24
10	M'gladbach	19	6	5	8	-6	23
11	Schalke 04	19	6	4	9	+1	22
12	Mainz	19	6	4	9	-8	22
13	Augsburg	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Wolfsburg	19	5	4	10	-10	19
15	Werder Bremen	18	4	4	10	-16	16
16	Hamburg	19	4	4	11	-19	16
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	19	4	3	12	-13	15
18	Darmstadt	18	2	3	13	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Bayern Munich	10	7	3	0	+22	24
3	Hertha	9	8	0	1	+12	24
4	Hoffenheim	10	5	5	0	+11	20
5	FC Koln	9	5	4	0	+10	19
6	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+13	18
7	M'gladbach	10	5	3	2	+8	18
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	5	3	0	+7	18
9	Freiburg	9	6	0	3	+0	18
10	Schalke 04	10	5	1	4	+6	16
11	Mainz	9	4	3	2	+4	15
12	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	Hamburg	9	3	2	4	-8	11
14	Werder Bremen	10	3	1	6	-4	10
15	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	-6	9
16	Darmstadt	10	2	3	5	-8	9
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	2	2	5	-5	8
18	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+9	22
2	RB Leipzig	9	5	2	2	+7	17
3	Hoffenheim	9	3	5	1	+5	14
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	2	4	+1	14
5	Dortmund	10	3	4	3	+4	13
6	FC Koln	10	3	4	3	+2	13
7	Augsburg	9	3	3	3	+1	12
8	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	-3	11
9	Leverkusen	9	3	1	5	-2	10
10	Hertha	10	2	3	5	-6	9
11	Freiburg	10	2	2	6	-9	8
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Mainz	10	2	1	7	-12	7
14	Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-5	6
15	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-12	6
16	Hamburg	10	1	2	7	-11	5
17	M'gladbach	9	1	2	6	-14	5
18	Darmstadt	8	0	0	8	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.