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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Union Berlin

S U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

33%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

56%

78%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 13. · Mainz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	20	4	4	+53	64
2	Dortmund	28	17	6	5	+40	57
3	RB Leipzig	28	15	10	3	+41	55
4	M'gladbach	28	16	5	7	+19	53
5	Leverkusen	28	16	5	7	+17	53
6	Wolfsburg	28	11	9	8	+6	42
7	Freiburg	28	10	8	10	-2	38
8	Schalke 04	27	9	10	8	-10	37
9	Hoffenheim	27	10	6	11	-11	36
10	Hertha	28	9	8	11	-9	35
11	FC Koln	27	10	4	13	-6	34
12	Augsburg	27	8	6	13	-14	30
13	Union Berlin	27	9	3	15	-15	30
14	Ein Frankfurt	27	8	5	14	-8	29
15	Mainz	27	8	3	16	-24	27
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	27	5	9	13	-23	24
17	Werder Bremen	27	5	7	15	-30	22
18	Paderborn	27	4	6	17	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	10	3	1	+34	33
2	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+30	32
3	M'gladbach	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	6	1	+19	27
5	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+9	22
7	FC Koln	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Schalke 04	14	5	6	3	-3	21
9	Freiburg	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Union Berlin	13	6	1	6	+0	19
11	Augsburg	13	5	3	5	+2	18
12	Wolfsburg	14	4	6	4	+1	18
13	Hoffenheim	14	5	1	8	-15	16
14	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Mainz	14	4	2	8	-11	14
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	3	4	6	-10	13
17	Paderborn	14	2	2	10	-14	8
18	Werder Bremen	13	1	3	9	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+22	28
3	Leverkusen	14	9	1	4	+8	28
4	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+7	24
5	Dortmund	14	7	3	4	+6	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Hoffenheim	13	5	5	3	+4	20
8	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Freiburg	15	4	6	5	-3	18
10	Schalke 04	13	4	4	5	-7	16
11	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-9	16
12	FC Koln	13	4	1	8	-10	13
13	Mainz	13	4	1	8	-13	13
14	Augsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	2	5	7	-13	11
16	Union Berlin	14	3	2	9	-15	11
17	Paderborn	13	2	4	7	-10	10
18	Ein Frankfurt	13	2	1	10	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.