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Bundesliga
Referee: F Brych
Hoffenheim
U T U T U
3–1
Full-time
FC Koln
S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim FC Koln
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,7
Scored
0,8
2,5
Conceded
2,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,7
+1,3
This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 37%
37%
37%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
63%
74%
Both score Ø 59%
59%
59%
Average goals
3,1
3,4
Scored
1,3
1,6
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
8 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
0 Corners 10
3 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 8
6 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Hoffenheim 9. · FC Koln 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 28 20 4 4 +53 64
2 Dortmund 28 17 6 5 +40 57
3 RB Leipzig 28 15 10 3 +41 55
4 M'gladbach 28 16 5 7 +19 53
5 Leverkusen 28 16 5 7 +17 53
6 Wolfsburg 28 11 9 8 +6 42
7 Freiburg 28 10 8 10 -2 38
8 Schalke 04 27 9 10 8 -10 37
9 Hoffenheim 27 10 6 11 -11 36
10 Hertha 28 9 8 11 -9 35
11 FC Koln 27 10 4 13 -6 34
12 Augsburg 27 8 6 13 -14 30
13 Union Berlin 27 9 3 15 -15 30
14 Ein Frankfurt 27 8 5 14 -8 29
15 Mainz 27 8 3 16 -24 27
16 Fortuna Dusseldorf 27 5 9 13 -23 24
17 Werder Bremen 27 5 7 15 -30 22
18 Paderborn 27 4 6 17 -24 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim FC Koln
B. Hubner 🟨
3′
1–0 C. Baumgartner
J. Bruun Larsen
11′
26′
🟥 S. Bornauw
F. Grillitsch 🟨
28′
32′
🔁 K. Ehizibue
↦ J. Mere
Half-time 1–0
M. Dabbur 🟨
46′
F. Grillitsch 🔁
↦ S. Rudy
46′
2–0 C. Baumgartner
R. Skov
46′
3–0 S. Zuber
C. Baumgartner
48′
B. Hubner 🟨
50′
B. Hubner 🟥
50′
J. Bruun Larsen 🔁
↦ H. Nordtveit
52′
56′
🔁 D. Drexler
↦ F. Kainz
M. Dabbur 🔁
↦ I. Bebou
58′
60′
F. Kainz 3–1
J. Cordoba
65′
🟨 I. Jakobs
H. Nordtveit 🟨
76′
C. Baumgartner 🔁
↦ D. Geiger
77′
77′
M. Uth
penalty missed
82′
🔁 B. Schmitz
↦ J. Hector
82′
🔁 J. Cordoba
↦ A. Modeste
82′
🔁 M. Uth
↦ S. Terodde
I. Bebou 🟨
84′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

4-2-3-1
1 Oliver Baumann G
3 Pavel Kadeřábek D
38 Stefan Posch D
21 Benjamin Hübner D
17 Steven Zuber D
11 Florian Grillitsch M
18 Diadie Samassekou M
29 Robert Skov M
14 Christoph Baumgartner M
7 Jacob Bruun Larsen M
10 Munas Dabbur F
Bench (9)
12 Philipp Pentke
4 Ermin Bičakčić
32 Melayro Bogarde
6 Håvard Nordtveit
31 Lucas Ribeiro
8 Dennis Geiger
16 Sebastian Rudy
9 Ihlas Bebou
35 Maximilian Beier

Coach: A. Schreuder

FC Koln

4-2-3-1
1 Timo Horn G
19 Kingsley Ehizibue D
33 Sebastiaan Bornauw D
37 Toni Leistner D
2 Benno Schmitz D
28 Ellyes Skhiri M
20 Elvis Rexhbecaj M
24 Dominick Drexler M
23 Mark Uth M
38 Ismail Jakobs M
15 Jhon Córdoba F
Bench (9)
18 Thomas Kessler
34 Noah Katterbach
22 Jorge Mere
6 Marco Höger
14 Jonas Hector
30 Florian Kainz
29 Jan Thielmann
9 Simon Terodde
27 Anthony Modeste

Coach: M. Gisdol

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,46
U
3,65
B
2,72
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,51
U2,5
2,55
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Brych · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.