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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brighton

S S T U S

2–4

Full-time

Arsenal

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 67%

47%

87%

Points per game

1,6

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

60%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

60%

53%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,4

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

68% Possession 32%

9 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

5 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 8. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	13	1	1	+24	40
2	Man City	16	11	3	2	+28	36
3	Newcastle	17	9	7	1	+21	34
4	Man United	16	10	2	4	+4	32
5	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+10	30
6	Liverpool	16	8	4	4	+14	28
7	Fulham	17	7	4	6	+2	25
8	Brighton	15	7	3	5	+6	24
9	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+2	24
10	Brentford	17	5	8	4	+0	23
11	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
13	Leicester	17	5	2	10	-4	17
14	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Bournemouth	17	4	4	9	-18	16
16	Everton	17	3	6	8	-7	15
17	West Ham	17	4	2	11	-9	14
18	Wolves	17	3	4	10	-16	13
19	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-22	13
20	Southampton	17	3	3	11	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	1	1	+21	22
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+14	21
3	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Newcastle	9	5	4	0	+12	19
5	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+10	18
6	Man United	7	5	1	1	+8	16
7	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+6	13
10	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
11	Crystal Palace	8	4	1	3	-1	13
12	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
13	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	11
14	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Bournemouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Leicester	8	2	2	4	+0	8
18	Everton	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-9	8
20	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Man United	9	5	1	3	-4	16
3	Newcastle	8	4	3	1	+9	15
4	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
5	Brighton	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Tottenham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
7	Fulham	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-4	10
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	10
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Leicester	9	3	0	6	-4	9
12	Liverpool	7	2	2	3	+0	8
13	Everton	9	1	4	4	-6	7
14	Southampton	9	2	0	7	-11	6
15	Leeds	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Aston Villa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	West Ham	8	1	1	6	-6	4
20	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.