Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Man City
Everton
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | +24 | 40 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | +28 | 35 |
| 3 |
Newcastle
|
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | +21 | 33 |
| 4 |
Man United
|
16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 32 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | +10 | 30 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +14 | 28 |
| 7 |
Brighton
|
15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |
Chelsea
|
15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 24 |
| 9 |
Brentford
|
17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +0 | 23 |
| 10 |
Fulham
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +1 | 22 |
| 11 |
Crystal Palace
|
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 19 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 18 |
| 13 |
Leicester
|
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |
Bournemouth
|
16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 |
Leeds
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |
Everton
|
16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 17 |
West Ham
|
17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 |
Wolves
|
17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -16 | 13 |
| 19 |
Nott'm Forest
|
16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -16 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Ederson
G
J. Stones
D
M. Akanji
D
N. Aké
D
R. Lewis
M
K. De Bruyne
M
Rodri
M
Bernardo Silva
M
E. Haaland
F
J. Grealish
F
Coach: Pep Guardiola
J. Pickford
G
N. Patterson
D
B. Godfrey
D
J. Tarkowski
D
V. Mykolenko
D
A. Iwobi
M
D. Gray
M
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
Coach: F. Lampard
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Leeds
Man City
Man City
Liverpool
Man City
Brentford
Man City
Chelsea
Man City
Fulham
A Madley · 167 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.