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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Southampton

T T U T S

1–3

Full-time

Brighton

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 32%

20%

43%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

53%

57%

Both score Ø 59%

60%

57%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

34% Possession 66%

14 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 19. · Brighton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	12	1	1	+22	37
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+26	32
3	Newcastle	15	8	6	1	+18	30
4	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+10	30
5	Man United	14	8	2	4	+0	26
6	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+11	22
7	Brighton	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+0	21
9	Brentford	16	4	8	4	-2	20
10	Fulham	15	5	4	6	-2	19
11	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-3	19
12	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-6	18
13	Leicester	15	5	2	8	+0	17
14	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-14	16
15	Leeds	14	4	3	7	-4	15
16	West Ham	15	4	2	9	-5	14
17	Everton	15	3	5	7	-6	14
18	Nott'm Forest	15	3	4	8	-19	13
19	Southampton	15	3	3	9	-14	12
20	Wolves	15	2	4	9	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+21	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	8	5	3	0	+12	18
4	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+10	18
5	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+13	17
6	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+6	13
7	Aston Villa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
9	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
10	Fulham	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
12	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+1	11
15	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
17	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
18	Everton	7	2	2	3	+0	8
19	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-8	8
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Man United	8	4	1	3	-5	13
3	Newcastle	7	3	3	1	+6	12
4	Tottenham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
5	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-4	10
8	Leicester	8	3	0	5	-3	9
9	Fulham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-8	7
11	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
12	Everton	8	1	3	4	-6	6
13	Southampton	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Liverpool	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Aston Villa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
16	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
17	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Leeds	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.