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Bundesliga
Referee: R Schröder
Hoffenheim
T S S S S
1–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,7
4,0
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 64%
52%
76%
Points per game
1,7
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 74%
64%
84%
Both score Ø 62%
56%
68%
Average goals
3,4
4,1
Scored
1,9
3,0
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%
9 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 8
2 Offside 7
12 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 4. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 25 19 2 4 +49 59
2 Dortmund 24 16 2 6 +27 50
3 Leverkusen 25 13 6 6 +24 45
4 Hoffenheim 25 13 4 8 +12 43
5 RB Leipzig 25 12 5 8 +22 41
6 Freiburg 25 11 8 6 +13 41
7 Union Berlin 25 10 7 8 -1 37
8 FC Koln 25 9 9 7 -3 36
9 Mainz 24 10 4 10 +6 34
10 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 7 9 +0 34
11 Bochum 25 9 5 11 -8 32
12 Wolfsburg 25 9 4 12 -10 31
13 M'gladbach 25 7 6 12 -17 27
14 Augsburg 25 6 8 11 -14 26
15 Bielefeld 25 5 10 10 -11 25
16 Hertha 25 6 5 14 -32 23
17 Stuttgart 25 5 7 13 -16 22
18 Greuther Furth 25 3 5 17 -41 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Bayern Munich
Diadié Samassékou 🟨
30′
1–0 C. Baumgartner
D. Raum
32′
Florian Grillitsch 🟨
37′
44′
🟨 Lucas Hernández
Half-time 1–0
Georginio Rutter 🟨
46′
I. Bebou 🔁
↦ G. Rutter
46′
48′
R. Lewandowski 1–1
J. Kimmich
D. Geiger 🔁
↦ D. Samassékou
61′
Stefan Posch 🟨
66′
J. Bruun Larsen 🔁
↦ C. Baumgartner
74′
K. Akpoguma 🔁
↦ P. Kadeřábek
74′
81′
🔁 M. Sabitzer
↦ J. Musiala
81′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ T. Müller
M. Dabbur 🔁
↦ A. Kramarić
93′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

5-4-1
1 O. Baumann G
22 K. Vogt D
3 P. Kadeřábek D
38 S. Posch D
17 D. Raum D
11 F. Grillitsch D
18 D. Samassékou M
14 C. Baumgartner M
13 A. Stiller M
27 A. Kramarić M
33 G. Rutter F
Bench (9)
9 I. Bebou
8 D. Geiger
7 J. Bruun Larsen
25 K. Akpoguma
10 M. Dabbur
15 K. Nuhu
30 M. John
24 J. Che
37 L. Philipp

Coach: S. Hoeneb

Bayern Munich

3-2-4-1
1 M. Neuer G
4 N. Süle D
21 L. Hernández D
5 B. Pavard D
7 S. Gnabry F
6 J. Kimmich M
42 J. Musiala M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
11 K. Coman F
10 L. Sané M
Bench (9)
18 M. Sabitzer
13 E. Choupo-Moting
20 B. Sarr
23 T. Nianzou
26 S. Ulreich
22 Marc Roca
2 D. Upamecano
44 J. Stanišić
3 O. Richards

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,83
U ✓
4,99
B
1,58
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,28
U2,5 ✓
3,67
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Schröder · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.