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Premier League
Referee: S Hooper
Man United
T S S S S
2–2
Full-time
Leeds
T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Leeds
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 21/20 matches
Win Ø 41%
62%
20%
Points per game
2,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
62%
60%
Both score Ø 59%
57%
60%
Average goals
2,9
3,0
Scored
1,6
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 0,63
66% Possession 34%
24 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man United 3. · Leeds 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 20 16 2 2 +28 +2.1 50
2 Man City 21 14 3 4 +32 +3.4 45
3 Man United 21 13 3 5 +8 -0.7 42
4 Newcastle 21 10 10 1 +22 +0.9 40
5 Tottenham 22 12 3 7 +10 -1.5 39
6 Brighton 20 10 4 6 +11 +2.5 34
7 Brentford 21 8 9 4 +7 +1.4 33
8 Fulham 22 9 5 8 +2 -0.6 32
9 Chelsea 21 8 6 7 +1 +0.9 30
10 Liverpool 20 8 5 7 +6 -0.3 29
11 Aston Villa 21 8 4 9 -6 -0.1 28
12 Crystal Palace 21 6 6 9 -10 -3.2 24
13 Nott'm Forest 21 6 6 9 -18 +0.0 24
14 Leicester 21 6 3 12 -5 -0.3 21
15 Wolves 21 5 5 11 -15 -1.9 20
16 West Ham 21 5 4 12 -8 +1.7 19
17 Leeds 20 4 6 10 -8 +0.6 18
18 Everton 21 4 6 11 -12 -1.0 18
19 Bournemouth 21 4 5 12 -24 -1.8 17
20 Southampton 21 4 3 14 -21 -2.3 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man United Leeds
1′
W. Gnonto 0–1
P. Bamford
2′
ℹ️ Wilfried Gnonto
VAR: Goal confirmed
8′
🔁 C. Summerville
↦ L. Sinisterra
23′
🔁 Junior Firpo
↦ P. Struijk
Half-time 1–1
48′
R. Varane 1–1
own goal
53′
🟨 Weston McKennie
56′
🟨 Tyler Adams
J. Sancho 🔁
↦ W. Weghorst
59′
F. Pellistri 🔁
↦ A. Garnacho
59′
2–1 M. Rashford
Diogo Dalot
62′
63′
🔁 G. Rutter
↦ P. Bamford
63′
🔁 B. Aaronson
↦ J. Harrison
3–1 J. Sancho
70′
77′
🟨 Junior Firpo
Marcel Sabitzer 🟨
80′
T. Malacia 🔁
↦ Diogo Dalot
82′
V. Lindelöf 🔁
↦ M. Sabitzer
82′
90′
🔁 S. Greenwood
↦ W. McKennie
90′
🔁 Mateo Joseph
↦ W. Gnonto
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
20 Diogo Dalot D
19 R. Varane D
6 Lisandro Martínez D
23 L. Shaw D
17 Fred M
15 M. Sabitzer M
10 M. Rashford M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
49 A. Garnacho M
27 W. Weghorst F
Bench (9)
25 J. Sancho
28 F. Pellistri
12 T. Malacia
2 V. Lindelöf
36 A. Elanga
73 K. Mainoo
55 Zidane Iqbal
5 H. Maguire
22 T. Heaton

Coach: E. ten Hag

Leeds

4-2-3-1
1 I. Meslier G
2 L. Ayling D
5 R. Koch D
39 M. Wöber D
21 P. Struijk D
28 W. McKennie M
12 T. Adams M
23 L. Sinisterra M
11 J. Harrison M
29 W. Gnonto M
9 P. Bamford F
Bench (9)
10 C. Summerville
3 Junior Firpo
24 G. Rutter
7 B. Aaronson
42 S. Greenwood
49 Mateo Joseph
18 D. Gyabi
25 R. Kristensen
22 Joel Robles

Coach: M. Skubala

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,47
U ✓
4,83
B
6,54
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,60
U2,5
2,37
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Hooper · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.