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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Leeds

S S T U T

2–4

Full-time

Man United

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 23/25 matches

Win Ø 35%

22%

48%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

61%

44%

Both score Ø 63%

65%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 19

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 15. · Man United 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	20	3	3	+46	63
2	Liverpool	25	17	6	2	+44	57
3	Chelsea	25	14	8	3	+31	50
4	Man United	25	12	7	6	+8	43
5	West Ham	26	12	6	8	+11	42
6	Arsenal	23	13	3	7	+10	42
7	Tottenham	23	12	3	8	+0	39
8	Wolves	23	11	4	8	+4	37
9	Brighton	25	7	12	6	-3	33
10	Southampton	25	7	11	7	-5	32
11	Leicester	22	7	6	9	-5	27
12	Aston Villa	24	8	3	13	-6	27
13	Crystal Palace	25	5	11	9	-4	26
14	Brentford	26	6	6	14	-15	24
15	Leeds	23	5	8	10	-19	23
16	Everton	23	6	4	13	-12	22
17	Newcastle	24	4	10	10	-19	22
18	Watford	24	5	3	16	-19	18
19	Burnley	22	2	11	9	-9	17
20	Norwich	25	4	5	16	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	1	2	+27	31
2	Liverpool	12	9	3	0	+23	30
3	Arsenal	12	8	2	2	+11	26
4	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Tottenham	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Southampton	12	4	7	1	+6	19
9	Leicester	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	+5	17
11	Everton	11	5	1	5	+1	16
12	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+0	15
13	Newcastle	13	3	6	4	-6	15
14	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-1	14
15	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-3	14
16	Brighton	12	3	5	4	-4	14
17	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
18	Burnley	10	1	6	3	-1	9
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-17	9
20	Watford	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
3	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+14	27
4	Wolves	12	7	2	3	+5	23
5	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+6	21
6	Man United	12	5	5	2	+3	20
7	Brighton	13	4	7	2	+1	19
8	Tottenham	11	5	2	4	-3	17
9	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-11	13
11	Aston Villa	12	4	0	8	-6	12
12	Watford	12	3	2	7	-3	11
13	Brentford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
14	Leeds	12	2	4	6	-15	10
15	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-8	9
16	Crystal Palace	12	1	6	5	-9	9
17	Burnley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
18	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-21	8
19	Newcastle	11	1	4	6	-13	7
20	Everton	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.