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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Aston Villa

S T S U T

2–1

Full-time

Leeds

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

24%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

50%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

50%

65%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 11

2 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Leeds 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	14	2	1	+26	44
2	Man City	17	12	3	2	+29	39
3	Newcastle	18	9	8	1	+21	35
4	Man United	17	11	2	4	+7	35
5	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+12	33
6	Fulham	19	9	4	6	+4	31
7	Liverpool	17	8	4	5	+12	28
8	Brighton	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	Brentford	18	6	8	4	+2	26
10	Chelsea	18	7	4	7	+0	25
11	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	-6	22
12	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-8	22
13	Leicester	18	5	2	11	-5	17
14	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-6	17
15	Nott'm Forest	18	4	5	9	-21	17
16	Bournemouth	18	4	4	10	-21	16
17	West Ham	18	4	3	11	-9	15
18	Everton	18	3	6	9	-10	15
19	Wolves	18	3	5	10	-16	14
20	Southampton	18	3	3	12	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	1	1	+21	22
2	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Newcastle	9	5	4	0	+12	19
5	Man United	8	6	1	1	+11	19
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+8	18
7	Fulham	10	5	3	2	+3	18
8	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+8	16
9	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+5	14
10	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	+3	14
11	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	-5	13
12	Leeds	9	3	3	3	+1	12
13	Nott'm Forest	9	3	3	3	-1	12
14	Brighton	8	3	2	3	+3	11
15	Bournemouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Leicester	9	2	2	5	-1	8
18	Everton	9	2	2	5	-4	8
19	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-9	8
20	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Man City	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+9	16
4	Brighton	9	5	1	3	+4	16
5	Man United	9	5	1	3	-4	16
6	Tottenham	9	4	3	2	+4	15
7	Fulham	9	4	1	4	+1	13
8	Chelsea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	10
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Leicester	9	3	0	6	-4	9
12	Liverpool	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Aston Villa	9	2	2	5	-9	8
14	Everton	9	1	4	4	-6	7
15	Wolves	9	1	3	5	-7	6
16	Southampton	9	2	0	7	-11	6
17	West Ham	9	1	2	6	-6	5
18	Leeds	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Bournemouth	9	1	2	6	-20	5
20	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.