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Bundesliga

Referee: S Storks

Freiburg

S T U S T

3–2

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

47%

13%

Points per game

1,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

67%

73%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,6

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,69 xG 1,82

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 9. · Holstein Kiel 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	3	1	+34	+25.6	36
2	Leverkusen	16	10	5	1	+17	+13.0	35
3	Ein Frankfurt	15	8	3	4	+12	+6.2	27
4	RB Leipzig	15	8	3	4	+4	-2.7	27
5	Mainz	15	7	4	4	+8	-0.8	25
6	Dortmund	16	7	4	5	+5	+4.0	25
7	Werder Bremen	15	7	4	4	+1	+0.7	25
8	M'gladbach	15	7	3	5	+5	+0.9	24
9	Freiburg	15	7	3	5	-3	+3.3	24
10	Stuttgart	15	6	5	4	+4	+6.0	23
11	Wolfsburg	15	6	3	6	+4	-3.7	21
12	Union Berlin	15	4	5	6	-5	-3.9	17
13	Augsburg	15	4	4	7	-15	-4.9	16
14	St Pauli	15	4	2	9	-7	-6.2	14
15	Hoffenheim	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.6	14
16	Heidenheim	15	3	1	11	-15	-4.8	10
17	Holstein Kiel	15	2	2	11	-19	-11.7	8
18	Bochum	15	1	3	11	-22	-14.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
2	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	+14.5	19
3	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+9	+9.6	17
4	M'gladbach	8	5	1	2	+7	+3.7	16
5	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+5	+5.2	16
6	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+8	+7.0	14
7	Stuttgart	8	4	2	2	+6	+9.5	14
8	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+4	+2.2	14
9	Augsburg	8	4	2	2	+2	+5.6	14
10	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.1	12
11	Mainz	8	3	2	3	+0	+1.7	11
12	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.2	10
13	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.9	9
14	Wolfsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.5	8
15	Holstein Kiel	8	2	0	6	-11	-6.0	6
16	St Pauli	7	1	2	4	-6	-0.8	5
17	Bochum	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.2	5
18	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
2	Bayern Munich	8	5	2	1	+16	+11.1	17
3	Werder Bremen	8	5	1	2	+3	+1.6	16
4	Mainz	7	4	2	1	+8	-2.4	14
5	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+8	-0.2	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+4	-0.8	13
7	RB Leipzig	8	4	1	3	+0	-4.9	13
8	St Pauli	8	3	0	5	-1	-5.4	9
9	Stuttgart	7	2	3	2	-2	-3.5	9
10	M'gladbach	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.8	8
11	Freiburg	8	2	2	4	-8	-1.8	8
12	Heidenheim	8	2	0	6	-7	-4.3	6
13	Dortmund	7	1	2	4	-6	-2.4	5
14	Union Berlin	8	1	2	5	-7	-5.9	5
15	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-5	-6.3	4
16	Holstein Kiel	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.7	2
17	Augsburg	7	0	2	5	-17	-10.5	2
18	Bochum	8	0	1	7	-14	-10.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.