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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Milan

T S U S U

1–1

Full-time

Cagliari

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/19 matches

Win Ø 31%

41%

21%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

59%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,75 xG 0,37

68% Possession 32%

24 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Cagliari 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	2	3	+18	+12.3	44
2	Atalanta	19	13	3	3	+23	+15.9	42
3	Inter	17	12	4	1	+30	+18.9	40
4	Lazio	20	11	3	6	+6	+9.0	36
5	Juventus	19	7	12	0	+15	+12.3	33
6	Fiorentina	18	9	5	4	+13	+7.4	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+4	+4.7	28
8	Milan	17	7	6	4	+9	+10.7	27
9	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-5	-7.3	26
10	Roma	19	6	5	8	+2	+1.4	23
11	Torino	20	5	7	8	-5	-7.2	22
12	Empoli	20	4	8	8	-6	-9.4	20
13	Genoa	19	4	8	7	-11	-8.7	20
14	Lecce	20	5	5	10	-18	-11.2	20
15	Parma	19	4	7	8	-9	-13.6	19
16	Como	19	4	7	8	-10	+1.6	19
17	Verona	19	6	1	12	-18	-12.8	19
18	Cagliari	19	4	5	10	-14	-6.4	17
19	Venezia	19	3	5	11	-14	-11.6	14
20	Monza	19	1	7	11	-10	-5.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	7	0	1	+14	+8.2	21
2	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+7	+9.6	21
3	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
4	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.6	20
5	Roma	10	6	0	4	+10	+5.8	18
6	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	+7.3	17
7	Milan	9	4	4	1	+9	+7.6	16
8	Juventus	10	3	7	0	+6	+8.5	16
9	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
10	Bologna	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.3	13
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
12	Como	8	3	3	2	-1	+2.3	12
13	Venezia	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.0	11
14	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
15	Torino	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.5	10
16	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
17	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
18	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
19	Genoa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.9	6
20	Monza	10	0	3	7	-7	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.6	23
2	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+9	+7.7	21
3	Inter	8	6	2	0	+19	+11.2	20
4	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+9	+3.8	17
5	Fiorentina	9	4	3	2	+8	+0.0	15
6	Lazio	10	5	0	5	+1	+3.3	15
7	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
8	Genoa	9	4	2	3	-4	-3.9	14
9	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
10	Torino	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.6	12
11	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
12	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
13	Verona	9	3	0	6	-7	-8.5	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.1	8
15	Parma	9	1	5	3	-7	-9.0	8
16	Monza	9	1	4	4	-3	-3.0	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	10	2	1	7	-10	-10.0	7
19	Roma	9	0	5	4	-8	-4.4	5
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.