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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Freiburg

T S U U T

3–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 45%

45%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

64%

45%

Both score Ø 46%

36%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,64 xG 1,56

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 7. · M'gladbach 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+29	+20.3	29
2	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	2	2	+11	+2.1	23
3	RB Leipzig	11	6	3	2	+9	+0.1	21
4	Leverkusen	11	5	5	1	+8	+10.7	20
5	Dortmund	11	6	1	4	+4	+4.0	19
6	M'gladbach	11	5	2	4	+3	+2.2	17
7	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	-2	+5.0	17
8	Mainz	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.5	16
9	Stuttgart	11	4	4	3	+2	+3.7	16
10	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	-3.3	16
11	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	+2	-2.0	15
12	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	-5	-0.3	15
13	Hoffenheim	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.8	12
14	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.9	12
15	St Pauli	12	3	2	7	-5	-6.4	11
16	Heidenheim	11	3	1	7	-5	+0.9	10
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	2	9	-18	-9.8	5
18	Bochum	11	0	2	9	-22	-12.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	6	0	0	+12	+8.0	18
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	+10.4	13
3	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	1	0	+10	+3.7	13
4	M'gladbach	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.2	12
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+7	+2.4	11
6	Stuttgart	6	3	2	1	+6	+8.8	11
7	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+7.9	11
8	Augsburg	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.2	11
9	Union Berlin	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
10	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+2	+4.6	10
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	-2	-3.0	9
12	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
13	Mainz	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5
14	St Pauli	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
15	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.9	5
16	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
17	Holstein Kiel	6	1	0	5	-13	-5.9	3
18	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.8	16
2	Mainz	5	3	2	0	+7	-1.6	11
3	Wolfsburg	5	3	1	1	+5	-0.9	10
4	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+2	-2.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.7	10
6	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.6	10
7	Leverkusen	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.8	9
8	Freiburg	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.4	7
9	St Pauli	6	2	0	4	-1	-6.0	6
10	Heidenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
12	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.1	5
13	Stuttgart	5	1	2	2	-4	-5.1	5
14	Hoffenheim	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.9	3
15	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.9	2
16	Dortmund	5	0	1	4	-8	-4.0	1
17	Augsburg	5	0	1	4	-13	-9.1	1
18	Bochum	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.