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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Sevilla

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Valencia

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

33%

11%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

39%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,44 xG 0,58

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 14. · Valencia 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	13	4	2	+24	+16.5	43
2	Ath Madrid	18	12	5	1	+21	+15.2	41
3	Barcelona	19	12	2	5	+29	+21.6	38
4	Ath Bilbao	19	10	6	3	+12	+7.7	36
5	Villarreal	18	8	6	4	+4	+10.1	30
6	Mallorca	19	9	3	7	-2	+0.4	30
7	Girona	19	8	4	7	+2	+5.3	28
8	Sociedad	18	7	4	7	+3	+3.6	25
9	Vallecano	19	6	7	6	+0	-2.9	25
10	Betis	19	6	7	6	-2	+5.2	25
11	Osasuna	18	6	7	5	-4	-6.0	25
12	Celta	19	7	3	9	-2	+7.4	24
13	Las Palmas	18	6	4	8	-4	-14.8	22
14	Sevilla	18	6	4	8	-7	-5.1	22
15	Leganes	19	4	7	8	-11	-16.1	19
16	Alaves	19	4	5	10	-10	-4.4	17
17	Getafe	18	3	7	8	-4	-3.4	16
18	Espanol	19	4	4	11	-14	-15.7	16
19	Valladolid	19	4	3	12	-24	-15.4	15
20	Valencia	18	2	6	10	-11	-9.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+15	+12.3	24
2	Ath Madrid	9	7	2	0	+13	+15.8	23
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Celta	10	6	2	2	+8	+5.6	20
5	Osasuna	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
6	Girona	9	5	1	3	+5	+7.7	16
7	Betis	9	4	4	1	+4	+11.1	16
8	Sevilla	9	5	1	3	+0	+1.6	16
9	Barcelona	8	5	0	3	+12	+15.2	15
10	Espanol	10	4	3	3	+1	-3.2	15
11	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
12	Getafe	10	3	5	2	+3	+4.0	14
13	Villarreal	9	3	4	2	+1	+3.1	13
14	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.9	12
15	Las Palmas	9	3	3	3	+0	-4.5	12
16	Alaves	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
17	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.6	12
18	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	+0	+3.7	11
19	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-7	-4.4	10
20	Valencia	9	2	3	4	+0	-1.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Real Madrid	10	5	4	1	+9	+4.2	19
3	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.6	18
4	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+3	+7.0	17
5	Ath Bilbao	9	4	3	2	+3	+3.3	15
6	Mallorca	9	5	0	4	+0	+3.5	15
7	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+3	-0.1	14
8	Vallecano	10	3	4	3	+0	-5.8	13
9	Girona	10	3	3	4	-3	-2.4	12
10	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-4	-10.3	10
11	Leganes	10	1	6	3	-4	-11.6	9
12	Betis	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.9	9
13	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-8	-8.6	7
14	Sevilla	9	1	3	5	-7	-6.8	6
15	Alaves	10	1	2	7	-9	-3.2	5
16	Celta	9	1	1	7	-10	+1.8	4
17	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.5	3
18	Valladolid	9	1	0	8	-19	-9.8	3
19	Getafe	8	0	2	6	-7	-7.4	2
20	Espanol	9	0	1	8	-15	-12.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.