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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

West Ham

T T S U S

1–0

Full-time

Southampton

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/28 matches

Win Ø 22%

23%

21%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

27%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,40 xG 0,30

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Ham 19. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	29	23	3	3	+43	+12.6	72
2	Man City	28	20	4	4	+45	+14.7	64
3	Man United	26	15	5	6	+6	+0.7	50
4	Tottenham	28	15	4	9	+12	+0.5	49
5	Newcastle	26	12	11	3	+20	+2.8	47
6	Brighton	26	12	7	7	+15	+11.6	43
7	Brentford	28	10	13	5	+9	+1.2	43
8	Liverpool	27	12	6	9	+15	+3.6	42
9	Aston Villa	28	12	5	11	-2	-4.2	41
10	Fulham	28	11	6	11	+0	-5.9	39
11	Chelsea	28	10	8	10	-1	+3.2	38
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-5.5	30
13	Wolves	29	7	7	15	-19	-4.5	28
14	Nott'm Forest	28	6	9	13	-27	-7.3	27
15	Bournemouth	28	7	6	15	-28	-5.2	27
16	Leeds	28	6	8	14	-12	-5.4	26
17	Everton	28	6	8	14	-18	-5.0	26
18	Leicester	28	7	4	17	-10	-3.4	25
19	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-10	+0.4	24
20	Southampton	28	6	5	17	-23	-4.9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
2	Man City	14	12	1	1	+33	+10.2	37
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.7	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Brentford	14	7	6	1	+14	+1.3	27
7	Newcastle	13	7	5	1	+12	+0.9	26
8	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
9	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+4	-0.3	23
10	Chelsea	14	6	4	4	+4	+4.5	22
11	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
12	Nott'm Forest	15	5	6	4	+1	-4.1	21
13	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
14	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-2	-0.5	19
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	+3	+4.8	18
16	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
17	Everton	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.4	17
18	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-7	+0.8	17
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Newcastle	13	5	6	2	+8	+1.9	21
4	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
5	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
6	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	-1	-1.5	19
7	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	-6	-4.0	18
8	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-1	-5.1	17
9	Brentford	14	3	7	4	-5	-0.1	16
10	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
11	Leicester	15	4	1	10	-9	-2.9	13
12	Southampton	14	4	1	9	-13	-2.8	13
13	Liverpool	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
14	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
15	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.7	10
16	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
17	Everton	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.4	9
18	Bournemouth	14	2	2	10	-26	-4.7	8
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.