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Premier League
Referee: P Bankes
Newcastle
S S U S S
1–1
Full-time
West Ham
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle West Ham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
1,7
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,3
This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 38%
50%
25%
Points per game
2,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
40%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
40%
35%
Average goals
2,2
2,1
Scored
1,7
0,9
Conceded
0,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,1
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 1,01
63% Possession 37%
8 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Newcastle 4. · West Ham 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 20 16 2 2 +28 +2.1 50
2 Man City 20 14 3 3 +33 +3.6 45
3 Man United 21 13 3 5 +8 -0.7 42
4 Newcastle 20 10 9 1 +22 +0.9 39
5 Tottenham 21 11 3 7 +9 -1.6 36
6 Brighton 20 10 4 6 +11 +2.5 34
7 Brentford 21 8 9 4 +7 +1.4 33
8 Fulham 22 9 5 8 +2 -0.6 32
9 Chelsea 21 8 6 7 +1 +0.9 30
10 Liverpool 20 8 5 7 +6 -0.3 29
11 Aston Villa 21 8 4 9 -6 -0.1 28
12 Crystal Palace 21 6 6 9 -10 -3.2 24
13 Leicester 21 6 3 12 -5 -0.3 21
14 Nott'm Forest 20 5 6 9 -19 +0.5 21
15 Wolves 21 5 5 11 -15 -1.9 20
16 Leeds 19 4 6 9 -7 +0.1 18
17 West Ham 20 5 3 12 -8 +1.7 18
18 Everton 21 4 6 11 -12 -1.0 18
19 Bournemouth 21 4 5 12 -24 -1.8 17
20 Southampton 21 4 3 14 -21 -2.3 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle West Ham
Joe Willock ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
2′
1–0 C. Wilson
S. Longstaff
3′
32′
Lucas Paquetá 1–1
Joe Willock 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 B. Johnson
↦ T. Kehrer
Joelinton 🟨
57′
A. Gordon 🔁
↦ A. Saint-Maximin
69′
74′
🔁 Pablo Fornals
↦ S. Benrahma
74′
🔁 T. Souček
↦ Lucas Paquetá
E. Anderson 🔁
↦ J. Willock
81′
J. Murphy 🔁
↦ M. Almirón
81′
81′
🔁 D. Ings
↦ M. Antonio
91′
🟨 Nayef Aguerd
92′
🔁 F. Downes
↦ V. Coufal
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
5 F. Schär D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
28 J. Willock M
36 S. Longstaff M
7 Joelinton M
24 M. Almirón F
9 C. Wilson F
10 A. Saint-Maximin F
Bench (9)
8 A. Gordon
32 E. Anderson
23 J. Murphy
3 P. Dummett
6 J. Lascelles
11 M. Ritchie
1 M. Dúbravka
12 J. Lewis
21 R. Fraser

Coach: E. Howe

West Ham

3-4-2-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
24 T. Kehrer D
21 A. Ogbonna D
27 N. Aguerd D
5 V. Coufal M
11 Lucas Paquetá M
41 D. Rice M
33 Emerson M
20 J. Bowen F
22 S. Benrahma F
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (9)
2 B. Johnson
8 Pablo Fornals
28 T. Souček
18 D. Ings
12 F. Downes
3 A. Cresswell
49 J. Anang
47 K. Hegyi
10 M. Lanzini

Coach: D. Moyes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,62
U ✓
3,92
B
6,03
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,06
U2,5 ✓
1,78
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.