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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Barcelona

T S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

63%

27%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

72% Possession 28%

18 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Ath Bilbao 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	30	20	5	5	+38	65
2	Real Madrid	30	19	8	3	+36	65
3	Ath Madrid	31	14	13	4	+17	55
4	Sevilla	31	14	11	6	+12	53
5	Getafe	31	13	10	8	+11	49
6	Villarreal	31	14	6	11	+9	48
7	Sociedad	30	14	5	11	+9	47
8	Valencia	30	12	10	8	-2	46
9	Granada	31	12	7	12	+1	43
10	Ath Bilbao	30	10	12	8	+7	42
11	Levante	31	11	5	15	-7	38
12	Osasuna	30	8	11	11	-11	35
13	Alaves	30	9	8	13	-14	35
14	Betis	30	8	10	12	-8	34
15	Valladolid	31	7	13	11	-10	34
16	Celta	30	6	12	12	-7	30
17	Eibar	30	7	8	15	-16	29
18	Mallorca	30	7	5	18	-21	26
19	Leganes	31	5	10	16	-21	25
20	Espanol	30	5	9	16	-23	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	14	1	0	+35	43
2	Real Madrid	15	11	4	0	+23	37
3	Valencia	16	9	7	0	+13	34
4	Ath Madrid	15	9	5	1	+12	32
5	Granada	15	9	2	4	+8	29
6	Ath Bilbao	15	8	4	3	+9	28
7	Sociedad	15	8	3	4	+14	27
8	Getafe	16	7	6	3	+8	27
9	Sevilla	15	7	6	2	+8	27
10	Villarreal	15	7	5	3	+10	26
11	Alaves	15	7	5	3	+9	26
12	Betis	15	7	4	4	+6	25
13	Levante	15	7	4	4	+6	25
14	Mallorca	16	6	3	7	-2	21
15	Celta	15	5	5	5	+3	20
16	Eibar	15	6	2	7	-1	20
17	Osasuna	15	5	5	5	-5	20
18	Valladolid	15	3	9	3	+1	18
19	Leganes	16	4	4	8	-7	16
20	Espanol	15	2	5	8	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	8	4	3	+13	28
2	Sevilla	16	7	5	4	+4	26
3	Ath Madrid	16	5	8	3	+5	23
4	Barcelona	15	6	4	5	+3	22
5	Getafe	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	Villarreal	16	7	1	8	-1	22
7	Sociedad	15	6	2	7	-5	20
8	Valladolid	16	4	4	8	-11	16
9	Osasuna	15	3	6	6	-6	15
10	Ath Bilbao	15	2	8	5	-2	14
11	Granada	16	3	5	8	-7	14
12	Espanol	15	3	4	8	-11	13
13	Levante	16	4	1	11	-13	13
14	Valencia	14	3	3	8	-15	12
15	Celta	15	1	7	7	-10	10
16	Betis	15	1	6	8	-14	9
17	Leganes	15	1	6	8	-14	9
18	Eibar	15	1	6	8	-15	9
19	Alaves	15	2	3	10	-23	9
20	Mallorca	14	1	2	11	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.