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La Liga

Referee: David Medié

Ath Bilbao

U T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Villarreal

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

28%

44%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

24%

76%

Both score Ø 60%

44%

76%

Average goals

1,8

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

18 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

6 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

6 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 11. · Villarreal 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	17	4	4	+33	55
2	Real Madrid	25	15	8	2	+29	53
3	Sevilla	26	13	7	6	+10	46
4	Sociedad	25	13	4	8	+12	43
5	Ath Madrid	25	11	10	4	+10	43
6	Getafe	25	12	6	7	+11	42
7	Valencia	26	11	8	7	-1	41
8	Villarreal	25	11	5	9	+8	38
9	Granada	26	11	4	11	+1	37
10	Levante	26	10	2	14	-8	32
11	Ath Bilbao	25	7	10	8	+2	31
12	Osasuna	26	7	10	9	-5	31
13	Alaves	26	8	7	11	-8	31
14	Betis	26	7	9	10	-6	30
15	Valladolid	26	6	11	9	-7	29
16	Eibar	25	7	6	12	-12	27
17	Celta	26	5	10	11	-12	25
18	Mallorca	25	6	4	15	-16	22
19	Leganes	26	4	8	14	-19	20
20	Espanol	25	4	7	14	-22	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	12	1	0	+32	37
2	Valencia	14	8	6	0	+11	30
3	Real Madrid	12	8	4	0	+16	28
4	Ath Madrid	13	8	4	1	+11	28
5	Sociedad	13	8	2	3	+15	26
6	Granada	13	8	2	3	+8	26
7	Getafe	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Levante	12	7	2	3	+7	23
9	Sevilla	13	6	5	2	+6	23
10	Villarreal	12	6	4	2	+10	22
11	Alaves	13	6	4	3	+7	22
12	Ath Bilbao	12	6	3	3	+7	21
13	Betis	13	6	3	4	+5	21
14	Mallorca	13	6	2	5	+3	20
15	Eibar	12	6	1	5	+1	19
16	Osasuna	13	4	5	4	-1	17
17	Celta	13	4	5	4	-2	17
18	Valladolid	12	3	7	2	+4	16
19	Leganes	14	4	3	7	-6	15
20	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	7	4	2	+13	25
2	Sevilla	13	7	2	4	+4	23
3	Getafe	12	5	3	4	+3	18
4	Barcelona	12	5	3	4	+1	18
5	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	Villarreal	13	5	1	7	-2	16
7	Ath Madrid	12	3	6	3	-1	15
8	Osasuna	13	3	5	5	-4	14
9	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-11	13
10	Espanol	13	3	3	7	-10	12
11	Granada	13	3	2	8	-7	11
12	Valencia	12	3	2	7	-12	11
13	Ath Bilbao	13	1	7	5	-5	10
14	Betis	13	1	6	6	-11	9
15	Levante	14	3	0	11	-15	9
16	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-15	9
17	Celta	13	1	5	7	-10	8
18	Eibar	13	1	5	7	-13	8
19	Leganes	12	0	5	7	-13	5
20	Mallorca	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.