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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Chelsea

T T U U T

3–0

Full-time

Luton

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

5,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

4,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,27 xG 0,44

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 15. · Luton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
4	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.4	4
5	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
6	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
7	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.3	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
9	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
11	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
13	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-4.7	3
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.5	1
15	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
16	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0
20	Everton	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
3	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
6	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
9	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
11	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
12	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
19	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
4	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
7	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
8	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
11	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
14	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
15	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
18	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0
19	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.